032
FXUS65 KFGZ 250357
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming
trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...It`s a quiet evening across northern Arizona. Expect
cool temperatures, fair skies, and generally light winds to
continue overnight. A 500mb trough axis is now located from
central California northward through the Great Basin. This trough
axis will sweep east through Arizona tomorrow. Expect one more day
of cool temperatures and gusty winds before a ridge develops over
the region. This ridge will set the stage for warmer temperatures
and light winds next week. Tonight`s sky cover and wind forecasts
were updated to best reflect the latest high resolution guidance.
The rest of the forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /427 PM MST/...A shortwave trough continues its trek
across the state, bringing breezy winds and seasonable temperatures
to northern Arizona today. The journey seems to have left the
system a bit tired, leading to the tighter pressure gradients and
stronger winds being delayed until later this evening and
overnight. This will help limit the strength of the afternoon wind
gusts today. Expect breezy south-southwest winds with gusts in
the 25 to 35 mph range. Winds remain elevated overnight for areas
along and just downwind/northeast of high terrain. Temperatures
cool briefly on Saturday, clocking in at near to five degrees
below average. Despite the long haul, this elongated system will
not provide a sip of refreshing water to dry northern Arizona
during this leg of the race. Slightly stronger winds will impact
northeast Arizona Saturday. With elevated winds gusts forecast to
be between 30 to 40 mph, near critical fire weather conditions are
expected, mainly for eastern and northeastern Arizona. Please
practice caution if working or recreating outside this weekend.
These winds have the potential to make a single spark go for a
long run.

Sunday into Next Week...High pressure will rapidly build over the
region with an upper-level ridge forming across much of the
western United States. A warming trend will accompany the ridge
with each day seeing afternoon temperatures take slow, but steady
steps upward. Average temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be
close to average before becoming closer to five degrees above
average for much of next week. Some models indicate another
trough will displace the high pressure by the end of next week.
However, other members show the ridge remaining in place, keeping
the trough well north of Arizona. There is low certainty in what
the weather pattern will look like a week from now. Regardless,
the synoptic pattern is trending towards a more summer-like
pattern in the long run.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 25/00Z through Sunday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR
with FU/HZ possible near KCMR. SW-S winds 10-20 kts with gusts
20-30 kts through 03Z, then 5-10 kts overnight. SW winds increase
to 10-20 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/00Z through Tuesday 28/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Saturday,
then SW-W winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions with warming
temperatures through the weekend. Near-critical fire weather
conditions expected Saturday across the Little Colorado River
Valley. Winds southwest 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each
afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming trend continues with dry
conditions expected. Mainly southwest to west winds 10-20 mph each
day. Minimum afternoon RH values 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/Mazon
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff