Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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085 FXUS65 KFGZ 171733 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1033 AM MST Fri May 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will return to northern Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather is possible next week. && .UPDATE...Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected for today, along with typical afternoon breezes, as high pressure builds into the southwest. Overnight forecast package is in good shape, with no changes needed this morning. Previous discussion continues below. && .PREV DISCUSSION /301 AM MST/...Clear skies were being observed across Arizona in the early morning hours as a weak high pressure system began to move in from the west. For today look for a bit warmer daytime temperatures and afternoon west to southwest breezes at a pretty typical 10 to 20 mph. Enough moisture will linger across the area for a few afternoon fair weather cumulus over the mountains. For Saturday and Sunday...The high will move eastward as a long- wave trough begins to build over the western states. The result will be strengthening pressure gradients for stronger winds and a distinct shift to a more southwesterly direction. Afternoon sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts near 30 mph are likely each day. It will remain dry. On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger short-wave trough will rotate through the western states long-wave pattern producing even stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to over 40 mph, especially from about Flagstaff eastward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine for a environment more conducive to fire spread. By Tuesday there will be enough moisture and dynamic lift combined with cooling aloft associated with the short-wave trough for a slight chance of high based showers near the Arizona/Utah border. Winds will lighten up a bit later on Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward. From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based showers along the Arizona/Utah border. && .AVIATION...Friday 17/18Z through Saturday 18/18Z...VFR with SW winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts. Winds become light after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/18Z through Monday 20/18Z...VFR with SW winds 10-20 kts, gusts 25-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions return. South to west winds 10-20 mph with afternoon RH values between 10-20%. Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue. Southwest to west winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph Sunday, increasing to 25-35 mph gusting to 35-45 mph on Monday, then decreasing on Tuesday. Afternoon RH values will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical fire weather concerns, especially across eastern Arizona, on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys/McCollum AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff