147
FXUS65 KFGZ 011631
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 AM MST Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and
breezy afternoon winds will continue to be the main weather
story through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...No forecast updates are needed this morning as clear
skies are being observed across the northland. West-southwest are
just beginning to pick up over the higher terrain with gusts of
20-25 mph. All forecast trends for today are on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...For the weekend - a weak trough
moving west to east across the region will bring an increase in
southwesterly winds, reaching 10-20 mph this afternoon with a few
gusts up to 30 mph. Sunday`s winds will be just a few mph less,
but still breezy. Look for clear skies with warm afternoon
temperatures, though the trough will knock highs down a few
degrees compared to yesterday.

Monday through Friday - heights slowly build through Tuesday with
stronger ridging becoming the dominant weather feature Wednesday
and Thursday from AZ/NM up through the Great Basin. Temperatures
gradually climb each day, becoming up to 10 degrees above early
June averages by Wed/Thu. We could be close to Heat Advisory/
Warning levels for some of our lower elevation areas by Thursday
so we`ll be watching that over the next couple days. By Friday -
much of the guidance begins to push the ridge eastward as a closed
low off the Pacific shifts northward toward southern California
and western Arizona. Still some uncertainty in the movement of
this feature this far out, but the southerly flow induced on the
east side of the low could bring enough moisture into the region
for some high-based showers or storms Thursday and Friday
afternoons. The latest forecasts include 10-20% PoPs for these
days.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 01/12Z through Sunday 02/12Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Light winds through 15-17Z, becoming southwest at
10-20 kts with a few gusts to 30 kts Saturday afternoon. Winds
diminishing after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 02/12Z through Tuesday 04/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Afternoon southwest winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts
each day. Light and variable winds in the overnight and early
morning periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Look for dry and warm
conditions to continue. Daytime humidity will drop to 5-15%.
Southwest winds each day around 10-20 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph
this afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...A few degrees hotter each day, with very
dry conditions continuing. Southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph Monday
and Tuesday, becoming variable 10 to 15 mph Wednesday. Minimum
humidity ranging from 7-15% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff