Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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085 FXUS63 KFSD 280808 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 308 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with isolated thunder through late morning east of the James River. Seasonal temps and slightly breezy east of I-29, with dry conditions this afternoon. - Dry on Wednesday. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms starting late Wednesday night and continuing through the weekend. - Near normal temperatures prevail with periodic breezy conditions into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 TODAY/TONIGHT: Watching the next wave dive southeast this morning from ND, bringing some light showers to the area through the overnight hours through mid morning. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder with a couple hundred Joules of CAPE. Severe weather is not expected, and should see rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to near 50, with increasing clouds as the wave moves through. Isolated sprinkles are possible in the afternoon hours across southwestern MN and northwestern IA as the wave swings through the eastern portion of the forecast area. However, with so little low level moisture to work with, will keep the forecast dry for now. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, coolest across southwestern MN where cloud cover and stronger northwesterly flow/CAA prevail. Winds today will be breezy as we mix into the stronger winds and cooler air aloft. Northwesterly winds will be sustained around 10-20 mph (strongest in southwestern MN) with gusts near 30 mph. Weak and quick moving ridge begins to slide into the western portion of the forecast area by late tonight, bringing clearing skies and winds shifting to the south. Lows tonight fall into the mid 40s. WEDNESDAY: Aforementioned ridge and surface high slide across the area tomorrow, ahead of the next system developing over the Rockies. Winds increase through the day west of the James River, where this surface pressure gradient begins to compress between the surface high and developing low to the west. South to southeasterly flow brings in relatively warmer air, although highs remain near average for this time of year (in the 70s). West of the James, winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust around 30 mph. Lighter winds with gusts 15-20 mph expected elsewhere. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD: Trough deepens and slides through the Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday, with a leading short wave and weak surface low ejecting into the western Dakotas and NE Panhandle overnight. This begins the increase of shower and storm chances from west to east overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with showers/storms continuing through the day Thursday. Models are varying in how much and at what level the greatest instability will be at, and during what time. There looks to be enough for at least some rumbles of thunder, although severe weather is currently not expected with the greatest instability off to the west (Thursday) and south (Friday). Trough axis swings north of the area on Friday, with another weak short wave ahead of it, although this wave may stay largely to our south. This keeps at least scattered activity around through the end of the week. Areas across south central SD through Friday have high probabilities (> 60%) of over 0.25" of rain, with moderate to high (> 40%) chances of over 0.50" of rain in a 24 hour period. Ensembles also show a low (< 20%) chance of over an inch of rain. Will have to keep an eye on trends, but generally think flash flooding risk is low given 1 hour flash flood guidance near/above 2 inches in most of this area. Next and possibly stronger short wave/trough axis swings across the northern and central Plains Saturday into Sunday, although models vary on details of this feature as well as trailing wave through the weekend. Ensemble guidance this morning shows low to moderate (< 40%) chances of exceeding 1500 J/kg of CAPE, with moderate to high chances (40%+) of this occurring Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with PWAT values likely (> 60%) over 1". Again, with models varying in the details, there remains quite a lot of uncertainty, but folks without outdoor and/or travel plans should keep an eye on the forecast for the weekend. Periodically breezy with near normal temperatures late this week into early next week. More chances for rain possible to start next work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR throughout the period. A 30% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists overnight into Tuesday morning for areas along and east of a line from Huron, SD to Sioux Falls, SD to Storm Lake, IA. Have included tempo groups for both KHON and KFSD, though impacts should remain minimal. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds between westerly and northerly overnight, with semi- breezy N/NW winds developing throughout the morning hours on Tuesday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SG AVIATION...APT