Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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876 FXUS63 KFSD 270354 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1054 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight, spreading from southeast SD into southwest MN. Severe weather is not expected. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near and east of a line from Huron to Beresford to Cherokee Monday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but when thunder roars, go indoors! - Dry, seasonal conditions develop Monday night through Wednesday. Next moderate to high (>30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 TONIGHT: Early this afternoon, temperatures have warmed into the 70s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and a broad cumulus field draped across the region. Upstream scattered showers and storms will track slowly east into eastern SD this evening and eventually into southwest MN and portions of northwest IA overnight. With very weak winds aloft, mid level lapse rates peaking at 7 C/km, and <1000 J/kg MLCAPE, severe weather is unlikely, but small hail and gusts up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out. With the increased cloud cover overnight and light northwest flow turning westerly, expect temperatures to only fall to the 50s overnight. MONDAY: Expect pleasant weather with highs in the 70s and occasional nuisance rain, especially in the afternoon. Scattered showers may linger near and east of the MN Buffalo Ridge Monday morning, but more widespread chance for scattered showers and/or isolated weak storms comes Monday afternoon east of a Huron to Beresford to Cherokee line during the day. This resides with the increasing, weakly unstable cumulus field developing as a northern stream shortwave tracks southeast from central ND to southwest MN. Severe weather is not expected with weak mid level flow and MLCAPE < 500 J/kg. High chance (>80%) of rainfall amounts being less than 0.10 inches. The greater impact Monday looks to be breezy northwest winds. Gusts mixing down in the 20s to lower 30s will be common Monday afternoon, but cold air advection behind the weak wave may bring peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph near and east of I-29. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Little to no noteworthy weather impacts with seasonal temperatures expected Monday night. Breezy northwest wind and mild conditions again Tuesday. With a weak shortwave sliding south through western MN, weakly unstable cumulus may generate a few weak showers or sprinkles near and east of Brookings to Luverne to Spencer line, but the chance is lower than Monday. Aside from breezy conditions west of I-29, mostly quiet weather continues with sfc ridging Wednesday. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND: A strong upper level trough tracking east through Canada drags a front and narrow warm sector into the Northern to Central Plains late week, bringing the next round of showers and storms. Latest guidance suggests a stronger shortwave tracks into the Central Plains in southwest flow aloft Friday through Saturday with a low (<30%) chance for ingredients favorable for severe weather, favored most by the GEFS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in southeast SD will slide east into southwest MN through daybreak Monday. Showers are fairly high-based (ceilings at or above 6-8kft AGL), so brief gusty winds are possible. The threat of thunder is low, so will not include in TAFs at this time. Additional showers/scattered storms may redevelop Monday afternoon, mainly northeast of our TAF sites so will just show an increase in clouds through the afternoon. Greater impact on Monday will be increasing northwest winds, which will gust 25-30kt at times. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BP AVIATION...JH