332
FXUS64 KFWD 190535
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Sunday night/

The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains
will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough
in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the
western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough
to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure
gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region
along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge
will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring
early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday
morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low
clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level
warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon
Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat
index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather
will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to
limit fog production.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 222 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will keep
the beginning of this upcoming week warm, dry, and humid across
North and Central Texas. A deepening longwave trough will move
onshore in the western CONUS early this week, eventually shunting
the ridge further into the deep south. In advance of this
incoming trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur to our
northwest and increase wind speeds through Tuesday in response.
While the slightly elevated winds may help alleviate the heat,
increased WAA from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday will allow
afternoon heat indices to peak near 100 degrees across the
majority of the region. With many end-of-school outdoor activities
going on during the afternoon hours, caution will need to be
taken when spending longer periods outside. Make sure to drink
plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take breaks in air
conditioning/shade.

By Tuesday evening, a shortwave disturbance will round the base of
the trough and eject to the northeast. Lift from this shortwave
will interact with present moisture and instability to promote
isolated chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday night.
Immediately upstream of the initial disturbance, a stouter
shortwave will swing across the Great Plains and send a cold front
south across the Red River early Wednesday. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible near and along the front as
it pushes south. The front will end up stalling across North Texas
as its upper level support quickly races off to the east
Wednesday evening. Coverage in storms ahead/along the stalled
boundary will increase on Thursday as another shortwave transits
across the region and ushers the boundary northward as a warm
front. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to
promote strong to severe storms, but it is still a bit too early
to pinpoint more exact locations, threats, and intensity.
Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast for mid-late this week as
we will have more refined details the closer we get. Lingering
rain chances will end on Friday, with a temporary lull in
precipitation expected ahead of yet another incoming shortwave
disturbance to our northwest.

Switching back to temperatures and heat: slightly "cooler"
temperatures in the 80s are expected midweek thanks to the front
and rain chances, but a warming trend is expected going into the
weekend as ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains.
Continued high humidity and warming temperatures will push heat
index values back into the mid-upper 90s for most. Friday and
Saturday will once again be days to keep an eye on outside
conditions as heat indices could be 100+ degrees in some areas,
the highest of the forecast period. With next weekend being so far
out, there is quite a degree of uncertainty in the exact
temperature/heat index and locations. However, if similar guidance
trends continue over the next handful of days, heat safety
messaging will need to be ramped up for next weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern will be the potential for
stratus and patchy fog across Central Texas early Sunday morning.
A 30 knot low level jet, as indicated by the KFWS VAD wind
profile, will lift moisture over the higher terrain of the Texas
Hill Country, resulting in a deck of stratus initially between
1000 and 2000 ft. The base of the low cloud deck will temporarily
lower below 1000 ft around sunrise, briefly impacting the Waco
terminal, but likely remaining south/southwest of D10. Ceilings
in Waco will lift through the morning, scattering out by midday.
Temporary visibility restrictions between 2 and 4 miles will
accompany the low clouds, but these will also improve above 6
miles in the mid to late morning.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Sunday night
with a south wind in the 6 to 10 knot range tonight and 10 to 16
knot range on Sunday along with some daytime gusts near 20 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  72  91  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  88  70  88  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  88  69  88  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  91  70  90  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  89  70  88  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  91  72  91  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  88  69  88  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  90  70  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              69  88  69  88  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  91  70  92  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$