642
FXUS64 KFWD 181041
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Patchy ground fog has developed early this morning in a few
locations as expected. There is also an area of stratus pushing up
from the Hill Country but these clouds should not last much past
sunrise once daytime mixing begins.

Only some minor grid adjustments to morning cloud cover are
needed with this update (see discussion below).

79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Saturday night/

The axis of a shortwave will shift east of the region overnight
while a mid level ridge builds in from the west. Subsidence on the
backside of the departing shortwave will bring an end to all
precipitation chances overnight. The ground will remain moist
from recent rainfall, and the combination of a light wind and
a mostly clear sky will result in patchy, shallow fog overnight.
Fog is most likely to develop across the southeast zones where the
wind will remain calm and dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to
around 70 through the night. The fog may briefly become dense in
a few spots, especially towards sunrise. Any fog that does develop
will erode quickly after sunrise with vigorous boundary layer
mixing.

Deep, dry air under the ridge will yield ample late spring sun,
pushing high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A
light wind and shallow but abundant low level moisture will make
it feel even hotter with heat index values topping out in the
middle 90s for many. It will remain warm and humid Saturday night
with lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
/Sunday through Friday/

Heat and humidity are the words that best describe the weather
across North and Central Texas as we head into the new week. The
upper ridge currently moving into the region will shift eastward
on Sunday with zonal flow taking its place. This pattern will
induce lee troughing across the Central High Plains which in turn
will increase southerly winds across the region. Although the wind
will help it feel not quite so stagnant, high temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday will reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s.
Afternoon heat index values will approach triple digits across the
western zones Sunday and Monday and for much of the forecast area
on Tuesday. Lows will also be warm, ranging from the upper 60s to
the lower 70s.

Low rain/storm chances are expected across the northern zones
Tuesday night with the passage of a fast moving shortwave. Once
the shortwave lifts into the Central Plains, a weak cold front
will slide southward through the Southern Plains, stalling across
Central Texas Wednesday night. Lift along the front, coupled with
weak large scale ascent associated with the passage of a compact
shortwave, will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will increase in coverage on Thursday once the front lifts
slowly northward. Instability and deep layer shear are progged to
be sufficient to support strong to severe storms, but it is much
too early to know exactly where and how strong storms will be.
Storms chances should briefly end on Friday once the front lifts
north of the Red River and brief subsidence moves in behind yet
another shortwave, but the arrival of another shortwave and cold
front could produce additional showers and thunderstorms as we
move into next weekend.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler the second half of the week due
to more clouds, precipitation, and weak cold air advection; but
once the front lifts back north of the region, above normal
temperatures are expected.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The only aviation weather concern today will be some temporary
IFR/LIFR stratus early this morning across portions of Central
Texas, including Waco. We don`t anticipate these ceilings
reaching the metroplex terminals since low level flow is generally
less than 20 knots and daytime mixing should result in rapid
scattering and clearing shortly after sunrise. We would not be
surprised to a few remnant low clouds reach D10 between 12Z and
14Z. There could also be some brief visibility restrictions around
sunrise (3 to 5 miles) due to near saturated conditions and light
surface winds. Waco would be the most likely site to see these
minor visibility restrictions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
today and tonight with scattered high clouds.

A south to southeast wind will prevail at all TAF sites though
Sunday morning at speeds generally less than 10 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  71  91  72  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                89  69  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               88  67  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              91  68  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            89  68  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  71  92  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             89  68  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           89  70  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              89  67  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       91  68  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$