883
FXUS64 KFWD 311944
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

After a period of very active weather, North and Central Texas
will have the better part of today and tonight with generally
quiet conditions as morning thunderstorms have left a relatively
stable airmass in its wake. A weak upper disturbance is also
pulling off to the northeast as evident in water vapor imagery
suggesting that any additional ascent will be departing the
region. Early afternoon surface analysis indicates a high theta-e
boundary draped across our southwest counties and this is really
the only area where isolated convection may occur through the rest
of the afternoon. Otherwise, we`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less.

Later tonight, thunderstorms should develop well off to the
northwest across the Panhandle and given the modest northwest flow
aloft, should make a run at North Texas late tonight. Unlike the
last few nights though, instability is considerably weaker and
these storms should weaken as they approach. We`ll have 20% PoPs
across the northwest initially spreading throughout the rest of
the CWA during the day Saturday. Depending on whether or not these
storms make it into North Texas will impact PoPs on Saturday with
a remnant boundary likely resulting in a little better coverage
of afternoon scattered showers and storms. Low storm chances will
continue into Saturday night with the overall severe threat rather
low. With wet grounds throughout North and Central Texas, any
additional rainfall could cause some flooding issues.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Through Next Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast
period, with zonal flow remaining in place through the end of the
weekend through much of next week. On and off chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times as well
as convective complexes push into portions of North and Central
Texas from the west and north. The threats with these additional
rounds of activity will include damaging winds, large hail, and
the continued potential for flash flooding. The tornado threat
will be low but not zero. This will mostly hinge on the evolution
of storms, which will more likely than not move through in the
form of clusters. This would increase our potential for damaging
winds, and elevated thunderstorms will of course have the
potential for severe hail. Any remnant outflow boundaries or
surface fronts will serve to increase the tornado potential
locally should storms become surface based, but the mass majority
of storms should remain elevated as strengthening cold pools
dominate the region. That being said, overall confidence in any of
this activity remains quite low as model guidance continues to
offer a wide range of solutions. The only thing that is certain is
this active pattern that we are currently in doesn`t seem to be
going anywhere any time soon. As has been the case for the last
several days, specific timing, coverage, and hazards will be hard
to narrow down and may continue to heavily rely on real-time
observations and radar/satellite interpretation. Continue to check
for updates as the forecast is sure to evolve as we move forward.

The other main talking point with the long term forecast involves
the heat that will begin to make its return across the region
through the end of next week. Afternoon highs in the 90s with
dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat indices to approach 105
degrees. Heat illness will become an increasing concern for those
working outside, especially for our vulnerable populations.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Morning convection has exited the area and generally resulted in a
stable environment in its wake. Some MVFR cigs have persisted
across the D10 airspace this afternoon, but VFR should generally
prevail through the rest of the afternoon into the evening.
Increasing southerly flow and some airmass recovery will lead to
some morning MVFR stratus. Otherwise we`ll be watching the
potential for a few storms to spread into the D10 airspace late
tonight from the northwest, but coverage should be considerably
less than last night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  87  73  88  74 /  10  20  10  30  30
Waco                70  85  73  87  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
Paris               66  85  70  86  71 /  10  20  10  40  30
Denton              66  86  70  87  72 /  10  20  10  30  30
McKinney            67  85  71  87  72 /  10  20  10  30  30
Dallas              70  88  73  89  74 /  10  20  10  30  30
Terrell             68  85  71  87  73 /  10  20  10  30  20
Corsicana           70  87  74  89  75 /  10  20  10  30  20
Temple              70  86  73  89  75 /  20  20   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       68  87  71  88  72 /  20  20  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$