294
FXUS64 KFWD 240917
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
417 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 125 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/
/Starting The Holiday Weekend/

Strong low level WAA in conjunction with large-scale ascent
associated with a strong shortwave moving readily eastward across
the Red River Valley is producing localized severe weather early
this morning in our NE forecast area. One HP beast of a storm with
very large hail and damaging winds has done a bit of a right turn
on us and is headed for the Commerce, Sulphur Springs, and Emory
areas. Much of this area is already under Severe Tstorm Watch 298
through 5 am CDT this morning. This activity and associated anvil
blow off will only add to a mesoscale mix of challenges later this
afternoon associated with an approaching, then stalling synoptic
surface boundary just west of I-35/35W this afternoon. Throw on
continued southwesterly strong low level winds and WAA in the
lower levels and this only adds to the low confidence and forecast
quandary of where storms may initiate late today into this
evening.

CAMs really struggle with storm outflows and differential heating
from the early morning activity. There will be some capping, but
strong heating into the lower 90s with high surface dew point
values in the lower 70s should easily overcome this issue, it`s
just exactly where? Regardless, the capping inversion won`t be
completely eroded, so will maintain a low probability coverage of
20%-40%, with the best coverage across our East Texas counties
where this morning`s old outflow boundary will likely reside.
Also, with very high instability and steep lapse rates near 8 deg
C/km aloft to go along with 50 kts+ westerly deep layer shear, the
current Slight Risk area looks very reasonable through this
evening. Otherwise, southerly winds 10 to 20 mph may briefly
become southwest and diminish to below 10 mph just east of the
stalling surface front, then be light southerly overnight tonight.
Highs between 85 and 95 degrees will only drop into the lower-mid
70s tonight with the oppressive humidity continuing.

It is beginning to look like models are coming way down on storm
probabilities with bulk of the risk remaining well north of the
Red River. It appears the next amplifying longwave mid level
trough to our west will help a shortwave ridge form over the
Southern Plains and will likely need to temper down, or possibly
remove PoPs across areas north of I-20 on the next update around
dawn this morning. We`ll see if the CAMs keep us dry the next
several runs. Otherwise, it will remain seasonably hot and muggy
to start off this holiday weekend with highs mostly in the lower
to mid 90s with afternoon heat indices for some of the western and
southern counties ranging between 100-105 degrees, so quite steamy
and the light wind speeds won`t help much. If you`re planning
outdoor activities, which I know many are, please dress lightly,
stay hydrated, and have shade or A/C available to take breaks in
to keep yourself cooled down.


05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Rest Of The Holiday Weekend Through Next Week/

Overall weather trends and timing with synoptic features, lift,
and storm potential below still look on track. Saturday is the one
day of uncertainty as the strength of the cap will play a big role
if any storms develop at all thanks to a brief shortwave ridge
developing overhead. For now, have maintained low strong to severe
storm chances across the West and toward the immediate Red River
Valley, where very warm temperatures and lifting mechanisms will
be juxtaposed with the weakest cap strength.

We`ll continue to fine tune this part of the forecast through
tonight, as above normal temperatures occur across most of the
area.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Friday through Thursday/

The weather pattern will remain active as we head into the
weekend with low level moisture staying in place and multiple
shortwaves moving though southwest flow aloft. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible on Friday along and ahead of a cold
front and dryline. The best storm chances will be during the late
afternoon and early evening, mainly east of the I-35 corridor. A
cap of warm air will limit/prevent storms from developing, but if
the cap breaks, storm could become strong to severe quickly,
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The loss of
surface heating and the passage of the shortwave will end storm
chances Friday evening.

Saturday morning should start out rain-free but another shortwave
will emerge out of West Texas in the afternoon while a dryline
approaches from the west. The best storm chances will be from the
Red River northward where the cap is most likely to break, but
there is at least a low potential for storms across most of North
Texas. Any storm that manages to develop will have potential to
become severe. Storms will shift eastward with the passing
shortwave Saturday night.

Sunday should be rain-free with no discernible source of lift on
either the synoptic or mesoscale. The passage of a shortwave
across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night will send a
cold front southward through the region on Memorial Day. We don`t
anticipate any storms with the front since moisture will be very
limited above 850 mb. However, there may be just enough moisture
across Central Texas for a few thunderstorms Monday evening. The
front will bring a temporary end to the oppressive humidity, with
dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday
morning. The front will lift slowly back to the north Tuesday
night through Wednesday, resulting in low level moisture return
and a return of thunderstorm chances. Storm chances will increase
Wednesday night through Thursday with the passage of a shortwave.

High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be generally in the
90s and low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s. High
temperatures Memorial Day through Thursday will be slightly
cooler with mainly 80s and lower 90s. Lows will finally fall below
the 70s for most locations the first half of next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 125 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/
/06z TAFs/

Only minor timing adjustments for both MVFR cigs this morning and
for VCTS/TSRA late this afternoon through mid-late evening at the
D10 airports.

A cluster of strong to severe TSRA from KGYI/KF00 to KGVT/KSLR/
KPRX will not directly impact D10 airports sans possibly a
retrograding outflow boundary moving S or SW during the predawn
hours. Confidence is not high enough to introduce any convective
wind shifts attm, but NBND, east through the Bonham cornerposts
will be impacted by these big storms.

Spotty MVFR cigs were beginning to expand both north and west, so
by 09z and after look for MVFR to encompass all airports and
continue through midday. VFR returns afterward with scattering,
but an approaching, weak surface front/boundary will trigger more
storms off within a time window of generally 21z-03z or 04z. No
TEMPOs at this time with differences (especially coverage) on
CAMs.

S winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts+ will be possible
before veering SW ahead of the surface boundary this afternoon.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  93  76  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
Waco                93  71  91  74  95 /  20  30   5   5   0
Paris               88  69  88  73  91 /  20  40  10  10   0
Denton              93  71  92  75  96 /  20  20  30  10   0
McKinney            91  71  90  75  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
Dallas              93  73  93  75  96 /  20  20  10  10   0
Terrell             92  70  90  74  93 /  20  30  10   5   0
Corsicana           92  72  92  74  94 /  20  30   5   5   0
Temple              93  72  92  75  95 /  20  20   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       94  68  93  76  97 /  20   5  20   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$