Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
450 FXUS65 KGGW 302148 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 348 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Cool and wet conditions will continue for NE Montana today with gusty winds from the west/northwest. Wind gusts associated with isolated thunderstorms today so far, have not been stronger than 51 mph. 2) A warming trend is expected this weekend into next week with a strong upper ridge pattern evolving over the western US. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low will remain over the region today with cool and wet conditions favored. The NBM 12 hour probability of 0.01" QPF or greater is at least 50 percent along and north of Highway 2, with probabilities trailing off further to the south. For southern locations, measurable rain would still be expected with isolated thunderstorms but better odds will exist to the north. The trough will help provide some instability with enough CAPE/Shear to support some short lived thunderstorms, but much of what is expected to occur is convective rain showers. The latest HREF suggests a few of these showers may help mix down some strong wind gusts. The activity may be too isolated and short lived to justify a High Wind Warning, and the presence of lightning could lend to a more convective influence. For now, will let the Lake Wind Advisory ride for Fort Peck Lake until 9 PM this evening to cover expected gusty synoptic winds, but convective enhancement appears likely. Look for a warming trend this weekend into next week with a progressive pattern initially with various shortwave ridges and troughs tracking through the region. The expectation will be for an uptick in temperatures along with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Longer term ensembles point towards a large upper ridge developing over the western CONUS late next week into next weekend which would lend toward hot and dry weather unfolding. CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high on cool and wet conditions continuing today for NE Montana. Lower confidence exists on isolated high wind gusts and coverage of associated thunderstorms. Confidence is increasing toward an eventual ridge and warmer and drier pattern setting up late next week, but an active progressive pattern over the next few days will lend to uncertainty in the precise timing of that upper ridge late in the week. Still expect warmer temperatures as current upper low pulls away, but occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms may return in the days ahead. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are likely today, though MVFR ceilings and reductions in visibility are possible with steadier showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop, especially afternoon and evening hours. West winds are expected between 15 and 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts. Gusty, shifting winds are likely near showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow