Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
467 FXUS65 KGGW 230856 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 256 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Cool and unsettled conditions remain into Friday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms focused along the Yellowstone River Valley today. 2) A warming trend into next week comes with decreased daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Expect occasional shortwaves helping produce enough lift and instability for daily shower and thunderstorm chances, though limited after Friday as an upper level ridge gradually builds in. The low pressure system progression toward the east and highs in the 50s today will keep most thunderstorms over North Dakota, particularly anything severe. As winds become light with some clearing tonight, patchy frost and fog from residual moisture cannot be ruled out. The consensus among ensembles is for widespread warmer than normal highs in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday given southwest flow under the ridge pattern. CONFIDENCE LEVEL and POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: Confidence remains high for temperatures, but medium on exact amounts and precise location of rainfall over the next week. Probabilities of a quarter inch or more of rain through tonight generally exceed 50% southeast of the Yellowstone River. There have been no notable deviations from the base forecast, but precise timing of precipitation chances will be monitored in the short term. -Zanker && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR - IFR DISCUSSION: An area of low clouds progressing toward the southwest out of Canada gives high (90%) confidence for a reduction to MVFR ceilings across the TAF sites by 15Z. KSDY and KGDV will see this linger into the evening including a period of IFR ceilings, along with showers and an isolated thunderstorm during this time. Elsewhere, look for drier conditions today with some clearing from the west heading into the evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow