471
FXUS63 KGID 270951
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
451 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and seasonably warm next few days.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday eve/night
  as activity shifts eastward off the High Plains. Overall-best
  chances come Thursday-Friday with our next frontal system.

- This frontal system could bring our next chance for strong to
  severe weather, though the combination of instability and wind
  shear don`t appear to be unusually strong at this time.

- Off and on thunderstorms and seasonably mild conditions
  continue into next weekend, though confidence on details is
  quite low due to significant model differences of the
  evolution of troughing over the N Rockies/Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Quiet conditions and pleasant temperatures in place for your
early Memorial Day Monday. There`s a weak upper disturbance
evident over the Sandhills of central Nebraska, per current
satellite imagery, moving SE. This could bring a transient batch
of mid level cloudiness, and perhaps a few sprinkles, through
the area this morning, but this is extremely minor. By
afternoon, strong heating will promote deep mixing and some
breezy NW winds, esp. for areas along/N of I-80. Forecast
soundings suggest these areas will be able to mix down some
gusts up to around 30 MPH. Temperatures will be seasonably warm
thanks to abundant sunshine and dry low levels, likely topping
out in the mid 70s north, to mid 80s south. Rising upper heights
will keep the quiet and mild/warm conditions going through
Tuesday, and likely Wednesday, as well, for most locations. The
exception could be over the SW 1/3rd of the forecast area,
generally SW of a line from Lexington to Beloit, where some low
end rain chcs (20-30%) creep in. These areas will be on the
N fringes of mid level warm air advection/isentropic ascent. The
main focus should remain over E CO into W/SW KS.

Return S/SE flow increases on Wednesday in response to deepening
sfc troughing to the lee of the Rockies. However, it appears
that the best moisture return - likely rather modest for late
May - will be confined to areas W of the forecast area over the
High Plains. Diurnal heating and BL moistening will likely be
sufficient to allow for scat convection to develop during the
aftn hrs, with modest Wrly upper flow steering activity slowly E
during the eve, perhaps aided by incr low level jet. Think the
majority of this activity will remain off to our W, but perhaps
decaying storms can make it into W zones late, before weakening.

Models indicate better chances for rain will come Thu/Thu night
with the arrival of a weak cold front. Continued Srly flow and
advection of steep lapse rates should lead to stronger
instability over a larger area by late aftn/eve, but the area
looks to remain on the SE periphery of stronger mid level flow,
which could limit the overall deep layer shear and more high end
severe potential. Nonetheless, strong veering with height will
probably be enough to provide adequate shear for at least SOME
severe potential. This will probably be more of the
Marginal/Slight risk variety - though the area is not officially
outlooked due to model differences in timing and placement. The
front itself looks rather weak, so it`s southward push may be
dependent on the coverage/strength of Thu`s convection. Latest
indications are that it may not go very far, so rain chances
continue into Fri in otherwise favorable, though modest, SW to
zonal upper flow. Since the push of cool air is weak, should
still rise into the 70s Fri aftn.

Forecast confidence really dips beyond Fri due to model
differences and progression of upper trough from the N Rockies
into central/northern Plains. Recent GFS runs favor a stronger,
but progressive, frontal push on Saturday that would pose
a significant risk of thunderstorms, whereas the EC is weaker
and, thus more nebulous with the forcing, but still offers some
convective potential. Since the EC is weaker, it favors a
continued warm/unstable airmass and more thunderstorm chances
through at least Sun and Mon. General indications are that upper
ridging and warmer/drier pattern will set up in about 7-9 days.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR through the period. Lgt W-NW winds early this morning will
bec brzy by midday, and esp this aftn with sustained winds
12-17kt, and gusts 25-30kt. Quiet conditions and decreasing
winds are forecast for Monday evening. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies