126
FXUS63 KGID 021702
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening and
  overnight. Initially, hail as large as golfballs, and winds
  gusting to 70MPH will be possible with early storms. Storms
  are expected to become a line with winds to 80MPH possible and
  the hail threat going down.

- Additional chances for showers and storms are expected through
  Tuesday night.

- We will experience a drying out period Wednesday and
  Thursday. Our first 90s of Meteorological Summer will be
  possible Wednesday afternoon across portions of north central
  Kansas and south central Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few thunderstorms remain early this morning east of Highway 81.
These storms may produce small hail and winds gusting to around
40mph.  There are storms currently moving through portions of Dodge
City`s area that may eventually make their way into north central
Kansas.  There is still some uncertainty over what impact this may
have for those in our Kansas counties.  A boundary currently
extending from Wakeeney (KS) to Oberlin (KS) to north of Benkelman
(NE) could do one of two things to those storms.  Interacting with
the boundary could have an intensification effect, resulting in some
stronger storms moving into the southern part of the Hastings CWA
later this morning.  The other scenario would be a weakening effect
with storms struggling to reach our southern border.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again late this
evening and into the overnight hours for the area.  The Storm
Prediction Center has put the majority of the area into an Enhanced
Risk area for today.  Storms are expected to kick off across the
Nebraska Panhandle and the Colorado Plains later today.  Storms are
expected to be discrete at first, congealing into a line as they
move across the Hastings CWA.  Initially, the main threats will be
hail up to the size of golfballs, and winds up to 70mph.  As storms
become linear, the hail threat will go down and the wind threat will
go up.  A few areas may experience winds gusting to around 80mph. An
isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out during this event.
Heavy rain will also be a concern, especially for areas that have
had heavy rain and flooding concerns already this week.  The main
timeframe for severe weather concerns appears to be from around 8PM
to 1AM.

Monday and Tuesday, an upper trough over the PACNW will progress
east-southeast across the Dakotas and into Nebraska.  There will be
a 20-30% chance of showers and storms during the daytime hours on
Monday.  Tuesday brings additional chances for thunderstorms in the
afternoon.  Areas along and west of Hwy 281 will have a 20-40%
chance of precipitation, while areas east will have a 40-60% chance.
 Although we are not currently outlooked for excessive rainfall,
there remains concerns that any thunderstorms moving over areas that
have recently had flooding issues may encounter additional problems.
 This will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Wednesday and Thursday, northwest flow sets up over the region. This
will allow for a needed period of drying out.  Warmer air will move
in, with possibly the first 90s of Meteorological Summer (June 1st-
August 31st) on tap for north central Kansas and portions of south
central Nebraska.  Thursday`s highs will be slightly cooler, with
temperatures in the 80s.  Lows each morning will range from the mid-
50s to mid-60s.

The remainder of the extended forecast brings back low confidence
chances for a few showers and storms.  Models are struggling to nail
down details on the track and timing of a disturbance or series of
disturbances moving through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

-SHRA/VCTS should be leaving the area shortly. Debated about at
 least a VCSH for GRI, but will keep it dry as activity should
 be out of the area shortly. This evening/ tonight an upper
 level disturbance will move across the TAF sites which will
 bring chances for VCTS. Storms have a good chance at being
 severe so large hail and wind gusts to 60+ kts will be
 possible with the strongest storms. Gave a window for VCTS for
 timing of possible storms. Once storms develop should have a
 better handle on timing. The winds this afternoon will gust
 into the mid 20s and should settle down some later this
 evening. An MVFR ceiling is looking possible tomorrow morning,
 so put a mention in and models have MVFR ceilings scattering
 out early afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Beda