826
FXUS63 KGID 031814
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
114 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will be possible this morning across north central
  Kansas. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Monday and Tuesday.

- Dry and warm conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
  Several locations in north central Kansas and portions of
  south central Nebraska may reach the 90s.

- Off and on precipitation chances return Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Ongoing showers across northwestern and west central Kansas will
move into north central Kansas later this morning, bringing
additional chances (20-30%) for precipitation to the region.  An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out; however, severe
weather is not currently expected this morning.  Precipitation
chances will diminish by mid-morning, leaving much of the rest of
the day dry.  High temperatures are currently forecasted to be in
the mid-80s.  Lows tonight will be in the low to mid-60s.

Late this evening, there will be another round of showers and
thunderstorms developing in the Nebraska Panhandle and the
Sandhills.  These storms will enter the region late in the evening,
moving west to east overnight and continuing through Tuesday
afternoon.  At this time, severe weather is not expected with the
Tuesday convection.

Wednesday and Thursday are still on track to bring a drying period
to the region as northwest flow sets up over the Central High
Plains.  In the upper levels, models are showing split flow
developing, which is a deviation from the past few days.  The split
has a ridge over the western CONUS, high pressure over Southern
California, and a cut off low to the west of the Baja Peninsula
Wednesday morning. Moving through the day, the low remains over
open water in the south. Wednesday will be one of the warmer
days we`ve had in a while, with highs in the mid-80s for areas
along and north of Interstate 80. Areas between I-80 and the
Kansas/Nebraska border can expect mid-80s to low 90s. North
central Kansas will be in the low 90s. Overnight lows will range
from the mid-50s in the north to the mid-60s in the south.
Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs ranging from near 80
in the north to the mid-80s in north central Kansas.

Friday into the weekend brings continued uncertainty regarding
potential convection.  Models attempt to begin the process of the
low being absorbed into the northern split of the flow and bringing
it north and/or east heading into the weekend.  Meanwhile, a mid-
level shortwave trough is expected to drop into the region from the
northwest.  There will be a 20-30% chance of showers and storms,
mainly in the evening and overnight hours as the trough comes
through.

Isolated chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the weekend.  A cold front will move through,
bringing some cooler temperatures.  Saturday highs will be mainly in
the 80s.  By Sunday, highs will range from the mid-70s in the north
to the low 80s in north central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR:
There is high confidence that at least the great majority of the
period will feature VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/rain-free
conditions (especially the first 12 hours). However, the latter
half of the period brings at least some question marks into
play, including a low probability for sub-VFR visibility and
perhaps ceiling, along with at least spotty showers/weak
thunderstorms passing through the general area. As for winds,
speeds will not be much of an issue (mainly at-to-below 10KT),
but there will be a directional shift from southerly to west-
northwesterly late in the period. More details follow.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation/thunderstorms:
High confidence VFR through at least these first 12 hours with
only varying degrees of mainly high-level cirrus (perhaps also a
few/scattered lower-VFR cumulus this afternoon). During the
latter half of the period, some question marks do arise, as
there are at least "weak" hints of fog and potential low ceiling
development. This signal is not strong enough to go prevailing
sub-VFR at this time, but have at least "hinted" with both a
"6SM BR" and "FEW010" inclusion.

As for precipitation potential, anytime after roughly 07/08Z,
mainly spotty showers and perhaps a few likely weak
thunderstorms could pass through (severe storms unlikely). For
now have at least introduced a generic "vicinity shower" (VCSH)
to account for this possibility.

- Winds:
Speeds throughout the period should not be a significant issue
(sustained mainly at-or-below 10KT, and even any occasional
gusts mainly under 15KT). As for direction, a generally
southerly component will prevail through tonight. However, a
weak cold front will start to switch things more westerly and
eventually northwesterly late in the period (post-sunrise
Tuesday). There is some modest uncertainty in the exact timing
of this directional shift, which will surely be better refined
in later issuances.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Pfannkuch