Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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490 FXUS65 KGJT 260821 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 221 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers are possible in the mountains this morning with little to accumulation on the roadways. - Temperatures warm to five to ten degrees above normal by mid week. Precipitation chances remain low through most of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 The trough has just crossed the Divide so the existing showers are expected to dissipate over the next several hours. By sunrise most locations will be dry although a few mountain ranges could see light snow linger until late morning. The left over moisture should result in mainly just clouds in the higher terrain this afternoon. Although isolated showers are possible in the mountains during peak heating. Warm advection kicks in behind the departing system so highs warm be a few degrees compared to yesterday especially north of I-70 where clouds were around most of the day. The moisture present now does not get pushed that far before southwest flow ushers it back. So tomorrow light orographic showers are possible over the higher terrain. A ridge begins to build over the region which marks the beginning of the warm up expected. Highs tomorrow will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Not much change in current thinking with regards to the long term period. Ridging continues to build in on Memorial Day as the warmup continues. High temps will reach at or just above seasonal values with plenty of sunshine expected. Some Cu buildup will occur over the higher terrain but that looks to be it. The ridge axis shifts just to our east on Tuesday causing wind flow to become more southwesterly. This flow will keep warm air advection in place allowing highs to continue inching upwards. Weak orographics along the Divide, and daytime heating, may allow a few convective showers/storms to fire but with PoPs of only 10 to 30% chance, don`t get your hopes up. Wednesday into Thursday, a large area of low pressure will move along the US/Canadian border. A trough will move out ahead of the low and while models continue to highlight some precip from eastern CO up into WY/MT and back into Idaho, they have continually kept our CWA just about completely dry. The NBM is keeping some very isolated PoPs along the Divide but for all intents and purposes, we`ll remain dry. We`ll see an increase in cloud cover but even then, partly cloudy skies look to remain in place. As the low to our north keeps moving eastward, a cold front will drop down and possibly reach as far back as our northern valleys. Both the EC and GFS are highlighting this possibility while the NBM isn`t so gung ho. Suffice to say, might see some isolated to scattered showers/storms Thursday evening and again Friday afternoon. After that, ridging builds in for the weekend. All things considered, a relatively calm long term period with noticeably warm temperatures especially from Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Conditions should begin to improve in the next few hours for the sites experiencing rain showers. Although clouds may hang around to cause extended MVFR or ILS at some of the sites. By late morning VFR conditions should prevail. A few showers are possible in the mountains this afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT