Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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700 FXUS63 KGLD 261949 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 149 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds with a few chances for showers/storms through the remainder of the day. Severe weather is not expected. - Warm and active pattern is expected next week, with chances for storms bringing an associated flooding risk. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 The system which brought a cold front along with a few rounds of storms through the region yesterday evening into this morning has since continued off towards the east. A cu field has developed over the region this afternoon with 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. With another wave within the west-northwest flow, have started to see a few showers/storms developing across southwest Nebraska, moving generally east-southeastward. Shower/ storm chances are anticipated to increase with eastward extent. Severe weather is not expected. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s. For the Memorial Day holiday, pleasant weather remains forecast as a ridge of high pressure builds in, giving mostly sunny skies, light west-northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the middle 40s to middle 50s and we`ll have slight chance for development of a few showers/storms for locations generally along/south of I-70 as a weak wave moves through. Additionally, winds veering towards the east- southeast may allow for development of fog and/or low stratus across parts of the area overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning - will continue to monitor. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Following the holiday, a more active pattern returns, anticipated to bring some moisture into the region over the work week. While the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday, an embedded disturbance will move through from the southwest, introducing slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing into the evening and overnight period. The upper ridge will move over the Plains mid- week, and an upper trough will enter the western CONUS. This will shove the ridge eastward and prompt shower/ storm development by Wednesday afternoon-evening. During the latter part of the work week, the upper low swings across the western Canada/US border, generating additional waves as it does so, allowing better chances for showers/storms. With the daily chances for thunderstorms generally moving off the high terrain to our west in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe, there is some potential for severe/flooding threats as ample shear, instability, and moisture (PWATs towards 1+ inch) is available. WPC has included parts of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday (far southern portions of the CWA), Wednesday (entire area), and Thursday (most of the area east of the CO/KS border). Heading into the weekend, there is lesser forecast confidence; however, the current forecast includes slight chance showers/ storms as a disturbance is anticipated to move through on the backside of the upper trough. Flow aloft then becomes increasingly zonal as the trough continues off to the east and it appears upstream ridging begins building in, potentially bringing a warming trend and some hotter temperatures to the region at the start of June. Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the upper 70s to middle 80s, slightly cooler at the end of the work week/start of the next weekend. Overnight lows are forecast generally in the upper 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 For KGLD... VFR conditions prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Northwesterly winds gusting to around 25-30 knots are anticipated to continue through the afternoon before relaxing towards sunset, becoming light, generally out of the northwest to west. A few showers/storms may move through the area later this afternoon- evening; however, confidence in impact to the GLD terminal is low, so have omitted from this TAF issuance. For KMCK... VFR conditions prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Winds continue out of the northwest, sustained at around 10-15 knots with gusts in the teens to low 20s. Showers/storms moving through later this afternoon-evening have potential to impact the MCK terminal in the ~21-02Z timeframe; any storms are anticipated to remain sub- severe but a few gusts to around 30-40 knots cannot be ruled out. Winds thereafter become light, generally out of the northwest to west. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...CC