387
FXUS63 KGLD 030945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional potential for isolated severe thunderstorms in
  vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor in northwest Kansas
  Tuesday morning (~4-10 am MDT / ~5-11 am CDT).

- A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the
  remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday),
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft over the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains will transition to NW flow by mid-week.. as
an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and
4-Corners extends E and NE across the Southern Plains.

Today: While early morning convection has taken a toll on the
thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area.. i.e. reduced
mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and a cooler post-outflow low-
level airmass.. regional analyses suggest that mid-level lapse
rates will rapidly recover/steepen this afternoon (replenished
by an otherwise pervasive elevated mixed layer in the lee of the
Rockies). This.. along with decreasing cloud cover /strong
insolation/ and modest low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints
~10-14C) should foster moderate diurnal destabilization
(~1000-1500 J/kg mlcape) this afternoon. An upper level
disturbance situated over eastern CO at 08 UTC this morning
(refer to SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress
eastward into central KS this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake
of this feature should tend to suppress convective development
this afternoon, especially in northwest KS. While isolated
diurnal development cannot be ruled out along
geographically/climatologically favored portions of the Palmer
Divide (CO) invof peak heating (~21-00 UTC).. substantial
convective development is not anticipated. With the above in
mind, expect predominately dry conditions.

Tonight-Tue night: An upper level disturbance approaching the
PAC NW coast at 08 UTC this morning will progress eastward
across WA-ID (today), MT (tonight) and the Dakotas (Tue). An
associated shear axis, extending southward along the lee of the
northern and central Rockies late Mon night, will progress
eastward across the Tri-State area Tue morning (~09-18 UTC)..
accompanied by a modest lee cyclone (progressing eastward from
southeast CO into southwest KS). Guidance suggests that
southerly flow, low-level convergence and shallow moisture
pooling on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned cyclone..
beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8.0-8.5 C/km H7-H5
lapse rates).. will foster a brief period of moderate to strong
instability (1500-2500 J/kg mlcape) over portions of the Tri-
State area Tue morning.. strongest along/south of I-70 in
northwest KS ~12-15 UTC. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via
recent (00-06 UTC) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST vary
considerably with regard to the location, coverage and magnitude
of convective development in northwest KS Tue morning. With the
above in mind, a narrow spatio-temporal window of opportunity
for severe thunderstorms may exist over portions of the NWS
Goodland CWA Tuesday morning -- mainly invof the I-70 corridor
in northwest KS around ~10-16 UTC. Thereafter and otherwise,
benign weather and dry conditions are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Wednesday...500mb heights slowly rise as upper level ridging
strengthens over the western half of the country. There is a hint of
moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area from the
north during the day along or immediately behind some cooler air and
wind shift. Not much instability to work with and old school Totals
Totals only in the lower 40s and K Index values 20-25 dont generally
support any convection. Presently, the forecast is dry and thats
seems reasonable this moment. 850mb temperatures in the 25C to 32C
range support high temperatures in the 90s. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern. Daytime
hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers
and thunderstorms to develop during the night as 850-500mb moisture
increases from the southeast while weather disturbances move east
off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridges and into our area. 850mb
temperatures are a little cooler, ranging from 19C to 27C. This
would typically support high temperatures in the 80s. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.

Friday...the tongue of better moisture in the 850-500mb layer over
much of the area in the morning slowly moves east through the
morning and out of the area by late afternoon with associated 20%
pops with it. The next weather system per 700-500mb relative
humidity forecasts emerges off the Colorado front range and
potentially into far eastern Colorado by 00z Saturday, moving
across the remainder of the area during the night with 30%-40%
chances of showers and thunderstorms with it. High temperatures
remain above normal in the 80s to around 90 with low
temperatures in the 50s.

Saturday...generally speaking, any mornings showers across the
eastern half of the area should move out as the next weather system
moves off the Colorado front range and into perhaps far eastern
Colorado by the end of the day, continuing east across the entire
area during the night in some form or fashion. Presently, 20% pops
are forecast in the morning with 40% chances across far eastern
Colorado late afternoon and 40%-50% chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s.

Sunday...similar large scale scenario as Saturday with any morning
showers/thunderstorms exiting in by late morning/early afternoon
then waiting for next wave to move across from eastern Colorado
during the night. Presently, 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms
during the day, 30%-50% during the night. High temperatures cool a
bit into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the overnight hours. Confidence is low in directly
impacting either KGLD or KMCK and VFR is expected to prevail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg