543
FXUS63 KGLD 232156
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms still remain possible for this afternoon and
  evening.

- Cold front this evening and tonight brings strong to
  potentially damaging winds; High Wind Warning is in place for
  a portion of the area.

- Severe weather potential continues on Saturday along with some
  fire threat for eastern Colorado.

- Warmer and potentially active pattern for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Difficult forecast for today as moisture return across eastern
counties has been a bit stronger than anticipated leading to
fairly thick stratus across the eastern counties. The dry line
is currently located from roughly Yuma to Burlington into
western portions of Greeley county Kansas; have also already
begun to see CU developing along it as of 1730Z. Forecast
continues to lean heavily on the NAMNEST as it has done the best
hinting at the cloud cover across the east and has thus far
nailed the position of the dry line. Same as yesterday, do
continue to think that the convection will occur along the dry
line as it continues to trek to the east, CI should occur around
3pm MT along a line from roughly Holyoke to Benkelman to Colby
down to Leoti. Significant differences are still seen in CAMS
with the HRRR and RRFS being dry and the NAMNEST the most
aggressive. There is some slightly warmer 700mb temperatures
around - 8-10C creating a weak cap; but do think this can be
overcome despite the overall lack of large scale forcing by not
only the dry line but also by reaching convective temperatures
which are in the low to mid 80s.

As for hazards for today: think there may be a window for some
landspouts along the dryline due to the stark difference in
temperatures along it. The warm temperatures should help to
further destabilize the surface (along with some surface
vorticity moving into the area and then as any updrafts start to
form it should help stretch them. Concern does continue for
large to very large hail as well as ample MUCAPE in the
3000-3500 j/kg range; the only caveat as to if this can be
realized is if the storms can survive long enough for hail to
remain aloft. A tornado (not landspout) threat may materialize
as well if a storm can be longer lived in the 23-01Z time frame
as the LLJ increases and streamwise vorticity increases.

Attention then turns to an incoming strong cold front during the
evening hours and overnight. There still does remain potential for
storms to develop along the front mainly to the east of Highway 83
where the better moisture still remains. Large hail, and damaging
winds will continue to be primary threats with this. Some areas for
QLCS tornado potential would also be possible along the leading
edge of the line especially with any north-south oriented
segments where the normal wind can remain perpendicular to the
line as strong streamwise vorticity remains seen in soundings
along with 0-3 and 0-1 SRH values in excess of 200 m^2/s^2.

To the west of the convection (in the more dry air) the potential
does remain for strong to perhaps damaging winds with the front.
GFS, NAM, RAP and HRRR all agree on 8-11 mb pressure rise along and
behind the front. The HRRR forecasted sfc gust has also been
consistently showing stronger and stronger wind gust potential
lying across a corridor from Graham county down into Wichita
county; to further increase confidence the HREF also is
highlighting this area as having the relative best potential for
non thunderstorm damaging winds. Have opted to issue a High
Wind Warning after coordination with NWS Dodge City.

A chilly start to the day Friday with lows starting in the upper 30s
across western portions of our Colorado counties and reaching the
mid 40s across the east. Not concerned for frost formation at this
time as winds will continue to remain breezy around 20 mph
sustained. Surface high that sets up across the area will push out
to the east as the day goes on which will lead to a fairly similar
day as what we experienced yesterday as winds will lessen throughout
the day. Similar to yesterday as well another weak wave moves off of
the Front Range and low to mid level moisture return occurs leading
to the potential for some hit and miss showers after sunset and
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Extended period starts off active again as well as a fast moving
trough and developing surface low moves across the area. A dry line
again will remain the main focus for storm initation, although there
remains differences in where the dry line will set up. Start time
may not be until a bit later in the afternoon/early evening due to
the timing of the wave and the better surge of moisture into the
area. Large hail and damaging winds again look to be the primary
hazards. Yet another cold front will then move through the area
Saturday night and Sunday morning which may again be the focus for a
potential second round of severe weather. Will also need to keep an
eye on fire weather potential behind the dry line and especially
across eastern Colorado where fire partners report conditions remain
favorable for fire spread.

Sunday, as the low moves off wrap around moisture looks to move into
the area again leading to a continued potential for showers and
storms. The severe threat at this time does appear to be on the
lower end of the spectrum. Currently thinking that strong winds
would be the primary threat as DCAPE values look to remain around
1000 j/kg.

Ridging then is forecast to develop across the western CONUS which
looks to lead to warmer temperatures for the region. The pattern at
this time is appearing to be fairly reminiscent potential MCS
patterns where storms form off of the Front Range and trek into
western Kansas as the Tri-State area is on the downstream side of
the ridge which makes the area more at risk to waves off of the
mountains. Moisture at this time does appear to be in place
which again would favor this. High temperatures for next week
are currently forecasted in the 80s with overnight lows in the
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
south-southeast around 20-30kts through about 03z Friday, then
veering north-northwesterly with a cold frontal passage. Looking
for 15-30kts, w/ gusts up to 35-45kts from 03z-11z Friday. By
20z, northwest 10-15kts. LLWS 07z-11z Friday 330@55kt.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Could be
some potential for VCTS through 06z, but low confidence at this
time so have left out of forecast. Winds southeast around
20-30kts through 04z Friday, then veering north-northwest
around 15-30kts. Gusts to about 45kts possible from 04z-06z. By
14z Friday around 10-20kts, then down to about 10kts by 21z.
LLWS 06z-14z Friday 320/330@50kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for KSZ013-027-
     041.
     High Wind Warning from 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening to 3
     AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for KSZ013>016-027>029-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN