Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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102 FXUS63 KGLD 240842 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 242 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers this morning. - Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Around 12Z today, the low pressure system bringing some sprinkles to the eastern CWA will be exiting the region, by 15Z, any lingering sprinkles will have ceased. Then, a high pressure system will be moving into the region, clearing out the skies and giving us northerly flow through most of the column. Winds from the north will gust to around 20 kts today until around sunset. Then winds will calm and remain fairly calm until Thursday afternoon, when winds around 15 kts will return. This high pressure system will setup over the southwestern CONUS and block the High Plains from any troughs. Clear, dry, and warmer than normal conditions will prevail for majority of the period. Highs will follow a warming trend; today will warm into the mid to upper 70s, but low to mid 80s are forecast by Thursday. Overnight lows will also see a slight warming trend; lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, but Thursday night will cool to around 50. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 221 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 As we move into the weekend, a broad ridge will extend across the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch the side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains. This pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most likely through early next week. There is a cutoff system that sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system does meander and retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF shows the best potential for some increased moisture to work towards the eastern CWA, but the overall trend keeps this east of the area. Late Monday into Tuesday morning, a cold front is expected to move south across the Central Plains. Precipitation is not expected with this front, but cooler temperatures are possible given the cold air advection moving in behind it. Temperatures through Monday are expected to be slightly above average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Near normal temperatures are possible on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 940 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the northwest through sunrise at speeds up to 10kts. Winds will be northerly with gusts to around 20kts from 16z-22z, falling below 12kts by 23z then light and variable after 02z. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will become northwesterly at speeds up to 10kts around 14z. Northerly winds gusting up to 20kts or so are anticipated from around 18z-21z. After 02z, winds become light and variable. Sprinkles or light rain showers are possible over the terminal from around 07z-11z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...99