Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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455 FXUS63 KGLD 021830 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Possible significant severe weather in the area this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, very strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are the main threats. There is a chance that severe weather will not form in the area or be very limited depending on how much dry air moves into the area. Best chance is along and north of Highway 36. - A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today is forecast to be fairly warm and active. Current satellite observations show a trough positioned near Southern California and Southern Nevada. This trough is forecast to move further north and east into the Four Corners region by the evening. As the upper trough advances, the broad surface low over Eastern Colorado is forecast to deepen and shift further east into the area. For the daytime hours, the shifting of the low and forecasted south to southwesterly flow will allow some drier air to begin working into the area. This will help keep skies sunny to partly cloudy through the mid-afternoon hours and help allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90`s (with 850mb temps forecast to be around 30C). This would allow for critical fire weather conditions in parts of Eastern Colorado as surface dewpoints are forecast to drop into the 30`s or less, but overall fire weather concerns remain low with the recent rainfall. For the mid-afternoon and evening hours, there is the possibility of significant severe weather for the area. The threat for today though will hinge on how far the low center and drier air nudges into the area. For locales that are behind the dryline, instability is forecast to be relatively low (<2000 J/KG) and the flow nearly unidirectional with similar speeds which would keep shear generally below 30 kts. In short, storm development in this region would be unlikely with short lived storms if they did form. Still could see a severe wind gust though with the dry air through much of the column. There`s also the possibility that as the trough moves closer later, a cluster of storms could form and move through much of the drier area. For areas ahead of the dryline, it will get a bit more interesting with all the moisture present near the surface. Loaded gun soundings are being forecast, especially near the dryline with soundings suggesting anywhere from 4000-6000 J/KG of MUCAPE present in the region of higher surface moisture. With the presence of a cap, will need either temperatures to warm generally towards the mid 90`s to reach convective temperature, or have storms form along the surface convergence from the low and dryline. If storms can initiate, the environment will then be supportive of all hazards with significant hail (effective shear near 40 kts) and wind gusts (DCAPE above 1500 J/KG & 60+kts flow in cloud layer) possible. Max hazards for the event based on analogs and guidance are suggested to be 3.5 inches for hail and 85 mph wind gusts. A couple of tornadoes would also be possible with LCL`s forecast to lower to within a few thousand feet while low level shear exceeds 10kts and SRH exceeds 100-200 m2/s2. The overall flooding threat looks to be low with storm motions generally forecast in the 30 to 40 kt range and limited chances for training. In short, today boils down to how far east the dryline and surface low move. The further into our area these features move by this afternoon, the lesser the severe threat. Any area that does have storms develop with dewpoints generally above 55F, the severe threat will be great with significant hazards possible. The favored area will be along and north of Highway 36 where surface convergence is forecast to occur along the low and where moisture would wrap around. The entire area is at risk as temperatures may be able to reach convective temperature and overcome any capping. Tonight, skies will slowly clear as storms exit to the east. Winds are also forecast to lower generally back below 15 mph as the pressure gradient weakens and the surface low moves overhead. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50`s and 60`s. Tomorrow, the area is forecast to remain under mostly zonal flow aloft while the broad surface low redevelops along the Front Range. Temperatures are forecast to be a tad cooler then today, but with no real air mass change, highs should still warm to near 90. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast to be over the area again with some drier air in place. However, near surface moisture is forecast to remain generally along and east of Highway 25. Storms might be able to fire up if it get warm enough as the lack of synoptic forcing will otherwise keep storms from firing up. Tomorrow night, could see some storms move near the Tri-State border if a cluster forms near the Front Range and can hold together. Otherwise, cloud cover is forecast to increase from storms to the west. Lows are forecast to hold in the upper 50`s and 60`s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Wednesday...500mb heights slowly rise as upper level ridging strengthens over the western half of the country. There is a hint of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area from the north during the day along or immediately behind some cooler air and wind shift. Not much instability to work with and old school Totals Totals only in the lower 40s and K Index values 20-25 dont generally support any convection. Presently, the forecast is dry and thats seems reasonable this moment. 850mb temperatures in the 25C to 32C range support high temperatures in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern. Daytime hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the night as 850-500mb moisture increases from the southeast while weather disturbances move east off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridges and into our area. 850mb temperatures are a little cooler, ranging from 19C to 27C. This would typically support high temperatures in the 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s. Friday...the tongue of better moisture in the 850-500mb layer over much of the area in the morning slowly moves east through the morning and out of the area by late afternoon with associated 20% pops with it. The next weather system per 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts emerges off the Colorado front range and potentially into far eastern Colorado by 00z Saturday, moving across the remainder of the area during the night with 30%-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms with it. High temperatures remain above normal in the 80s to around 90 with low temperatures in the 50s. Saturday...generally speaking, any mornings showers across the eastern half of the area should move out as the next weather system moves off the Colorado front range and into perhaps far eastern Colorado by the end of the day, continuing east across the entire area during the night in some form or fashion. Presently, 20% pops are forecast in the morning with 40% chances across far eastern Colorado late afternoon and 40%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s. Sunday...similar large scale scenario as Saturday with any morning showers/thunderstorms exiting in by late morning/early afternoon then waiting for next wave to move across from eastern Colorado during the night. Presently, 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms during the day, 30%-50% during the night. High temperatures cool a bit into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1057 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Watching an outflow boundary move west from earlier morning convection; have included a tempo group for GLD for a possible wind shift associated with this. The main focus for this TAF period will be thunderstorms late this afternoon and through this evening. Isolated cells look to develop near KGLD around 21Z before growing upscale into a cluster or two which does look to impact KMCK. For KMCK will need to watch for severe potential and possible sub VFR conditions. In the wake of the storms winds will become more variable but lighter through 18Z Monday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...Trigg