428
FXUS63 KGLD 260827
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible for most of Northwestern Kansas and
  Southwestern Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Yuma county
  could also see a severe storm or two. Large to very large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

High level cloud cover enveloped much of the area this morning, with
some breaks becoming evident in satellite this afternoon across
southwestern portions. 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) temperatures are ranging
in the middle 70s to lower 80s with 30 dews in eastern Colorado and
middle 40s dews across eastern portions, as high as 50F in McCook.
Fire weather conditions with south-southwesterly winds gusting 25-35
mph and relative humidity below 15% are being observed across
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado. The Red Flag Warning
for Cheyenne county, CO remains in effect through 6 PM MDT to
account for these conditions anticipated to persist at least 3 hours
this afternoon.

Regarding the severe weather threat for this afternoon, SPC
continues a marginal risk (hazard level 1/5) to slight risk (hazard
level 2/5) across the Tri-State Area. Favored area for severe storms
within the CWA, if they were to occur, would be roughly along/east
of a Stratton, Nebraska to Oakley, Kansas line, greatest chances
with eastward extent. Based off latest CAMs, scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated between 20-23Z both along a convergence
zone situated roughly in vicinity of Hwy 83 and with the cold front
entering northwest portions of the area (Yuma, Dundy counties). As
storms move generally towards the east-northeast into a more
favorable environment, they may become severe, primarily between 23-
02Z. Greater moisture availability and instability (with CAPE values
of approx. 1500-2000 J/kg) reside in this region. If storms do
become severe, all hazards would be possible, including large to
very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

The cold front is anticipated to move through the area between 00-
06Z. In addition to chances for storm development (where moisture is
sufficient) along the front, winds will shift to the north-northwest
with gusts to around 35-45 mph for a time before relaxing
thereafter. Overnight lows are forecast in the middle 40s to upper
50s.

For Sunday, low pressure progresses off towards the east. A few
showers/storms are possible in the afternoon-early evening, favoring
northeastern portions of the area, locations roughly along/east of a
Stratton, Nebraska to Hill City line. Elsewhere clear to partly
cloudy skies are anticipated. Afternoon highs are forecast in the
mid to upper 70s followed by overnight lows in the middle 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Wednesday, an upper-level ridge will still be in the area and its
axis will be moving over during the day. This ridge will dominate
the period through early Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures and
pop-up showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. These showers and
storms are generally expected to be scattered in nature, although
severe weather cannot be ruled out due to fairly strong shear. PoPs
range around 30-60, tapering off in the west.

Thursday, an upper-level low pressure system is showing up near the
Great Basin/Four Corners region. Very little has changed over the
past 24 hours. Ensembles and diagnostic models are still showing
this feature, which could bring our next chances of organized,
potentially severe, convection. Ahead of the convection, starting
some time Wednesday evening, the LLJ looks to start kicking up and
will start shoveling moisture into the region. The LLJ looks to
continue for about 48 hours, until the low level system moves
through. This increased moisture is expected to increase PWATS to
well over an inch. Combined with effective shear of 35-50 kts,
1,500+ J/kg CAPE, low LCLs and moderately slow storm motions, all
hazards are possible including flooding. Confidence at this point is
low (~10-15%) that severe weather will occur, but pinpointing a time
and place for severe weather is impossible this far out. Thursday
and Friday evenings will both have chances at severe weather, but
current guidance suggests Friday has a slightly better chance at
severe weather.

There is a chance (~20%) that we will only see some showers or weak
storms on Thursday and Friday. This would occur if the increased
cloud cover kept temperatures cooler than forecast, which would
greatly reduce our instability.

Temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to upper 80s
throughout the period and lows will cool into the upper 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northwest wind around 10kts is forecast from taf issuance
through 11z. From 12z-01z, northwest winds increase with peak
gusts around 30kts. After 02z, northwest winds under 11kts
resumes.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 10z
with winds from the northwest at speeds under 10kts. From
11z-15z, there is increasing confidence that stratus will move
over the terminal from the east, creating sub VFR cigs. From
16z-00z, northwest winds increase with peak gusts around 25kts.
After 01z, north to northwest winds under 11kts resume. Later
forecasts will need to closely examine the possibility of
showers/thunderstorms impacting the terminal in the 20z-23z
timeframe.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99