Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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421 FXUS63 KGRB 240742 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe this afternoon into this evening. Severity of storms will depend on how much instability builds up during the middle to late afternoon. Heavy rain is also possible with the storms. - Memorial Day weekend starts off dry for Saturday, but rain chances increase by Sunday afternoon and continue into Memorial Day. A soaking rain could occur during this time. - A few rivers over central and eastern Wisconsin could surpass minor flood stage early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday A line of showers and thunderstorms, currently developing across western Minnesota early this morning along an axis of instability, is expected to track through the upper Mississippi Valley and eventually Wisconsin later this morning. Although this area of showers and thunderstorms may hold together, which isn`t a given as some hi-res models do break this line apart as it tracks through northern Wisconsin, it will outrun the axis of instability as it tracks east. Therefore, any storms that make it through Wisconsin this morning are not expected to be severe. Attention then turns to the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening as a warm front lifts north and convection fires along the occluded front tracking east through the western Great Lakes region. There are several concerns and questions regarding the severe weather potential and the associated types of severe weather that will be possible for the second round of convection. The main concern is how much destabilization can occur in the wake of the first round of convection that tracks through this morning. There are some models that keep showers and thunderstorms ongoing for most of the day, which would inhibit any development later today as there would not be enough time for instability to recover. The next concern is where the warm front will end up today. Recent model runs indicate the warm front is forecast to lift more north than previous forecasts and makes a surge into central Wisconsin. This would obviously increase severe weather chances overall and especially the tornado threat as storms would likely be surface-based instead of elevated as they would be north of the warm front. Of all the parameters in play the shear is the least in question as models agree that there will be 40-60 knots of bulk shear for any storms to work with. If enough destabilization can occur this afternoon, as is forecast by a few of the CAMs models, with MUCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/kg there is a threat for damaging winds and large hail (5 to 14 percent probability) this afternoon and evening, mainly south of Rhinelander to Sturgeon Bay. There will also be a threat for a few tornadoes (2 to 4 percent probability) in the warm sector, which is currently forecast to lift north somewhere along a line from Tomahawk southeast to Manitowoc as 0-1km SRH values soar to 200 to 300 m2/s2 in this region. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall will also be a concern and as a result some flooding is possible. PWATs during this event will hover around 1.5 inches, or 175 percent above normal, along with long skinny CAPE profiles which means the storms will be efficient at producing rain. Although the storms are expected to be fast moving, around an inch of rain is expected to fall through this evening with some areas receiving upwards of 2 inches in the areas that get hit the hardest from both rounds of rainfall. Area rivers are already near bankfull given the recent rounds of heavy rainfall, with any additional rain likely to push several rivers into flood stage. The storms will push east of the area as the occluded front tracks through the area, with the severe potential waning late in the evening with the loss of daytime heating as instability falls to just a few hundred J/kg by midnight. Dry weather is expected behind the low pushing off to the east late tonight, which is expected to last into Saturday as high pressure builds over Illinois with a ridge extending north through the western Great Lakes. Mostly sunny skies and generally pleasant weather are expected for the first part of the holiday weekend. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday Models are in pretty good agreement with the movement of a shortwave trough/closed upper low that will impact northeast WI Sunday into Memorial Day. Models are also pointing at potentially heavy rainfall with this system which may lead to localized flooding and rising river levels. A modest upper ridge will bring a couple of days of dry weather mid-week before the next system approaches late next week. Temperatures appear to be below normal through mid-week before warming closer to normal late week. Saturday night and Sunday... Clouds will be on the increase/thicken across the area Saturday night as high pressure moves farther away and a new system pushes across the central Plains. Min temperatures to be in the middle to upper 40s north, upper 40s to lower 50s south. Conditions are looking better for a soaking rain to overspread the region on Sunday. Low pressure with attendant cold front will lift north and east into WI, while a trailing mid- level shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest sends a strong vorticity max into WI in the afternoon. A diffluent flow aloft to also exist, adding to the lift from the cold front. Strong low- level moisture advection into the area will bring PW values to around 1.5", thus heavy rainfall is a distinct possibility. Instability appears marginal as precipitation arrives in the morning, but bulk shear of 35 to 45 knots could produce some stronger storms. Max temperatures Sunday to mainly be in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Sunday night and Memorial Day... The showers/thunderstorms will likely carry over into Sunday evening before diminishing later Sunday night as the cold front shifts east and the shortwave trough pushes across WI. If this heavy rain does occur (models are showing 1-2"), will need to watch river levels as the ground is saturated from rains earlier in the week. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies to persist with min temperatures in the middle to upper 40s north, upper 40s to lower 50s south. There are still some model differences on Memorial Day regarding a secondary shortwave trough diving southeast across the Upper MS Valley. There is enough evidence between a cyclonic flow behind the departed system and this approaching trough to keep pops in the forecast through the day. Max temperatures for Memorial Day will be in the lower to middle 60s north/near Lake MI, middle to upper 60s south. Monday night and Tuesday... Chance of showers/isolated storms would continue into Monday night until this latest shortwave trough exits the area. As an upper ridge enters the Rockies on Tuesday, a prevailing northwest flow into WI to exist and models are showing one more shortwave trough to move southeast within this flow into WI. Cool air aloft combined with daytime heating should create enough instability to generate additional showers/some rumbles of thunder, especially during the afternoon. Increasing mid-level Q-G forcing associated with the shortwave trough will also aid in precipitation development. Max temperatures Tuesday to be around 60 degrees north-central WI, middle to upper 60s elsewhere. Tuesday night and Wednesday... Any precipitation will end Tuesday evening with the loss of daytime heating, the departure of the shortwave trough and high pressure which will be building across the Upper Midwest. This high pressure is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday and finally provide for a dry day across the region. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, look for max temperatures to be in the middle 60s north-central WI/near Lake MI, upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Wednesday night and Thursday... The high pressure to slide toward the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday, but still have an influence on our weather through the day. A return of southwest winds will pump up max temperatures Thursday into the upper 60s along Lake MI, lower to middle 70s inland. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected late this evening into Friday morning. High clouds will spread in from the west overnight. Conditions will deteriorate from west to east late Friday morning and Friday afternoon as a cold front sweeps across the state. Models a little more split now regarding if/how long a break will be in between two areas/lines of showers/storms. Some models also just wash out the first wave of activity and focus more on the afternoon round. So uncertainty exists on exactly how things will play out, but will continue to lean toward the idea of a weakening line/area of showers and isolated storms crossing the area mainly between 15-21z, likely impacting AUW/CWA, but lower chances the further north/east you go. A second line/area is forecast to arrive in central and north-central WI in the afternoon and then exit eastern WI by around 03-04z Sat. Winds will be light late this evening then shift to the east and slowly increase toward dawn. Could approach LLWS criteria in central WI (AUW/CWA) late tonight, but will hold off including as winds aloft look to stay under 25-30 kts. Another chance at LLWS Friday afternoon as winds at 2000 ft pick up out of the southeast, but if we remain gusty at the surface, LLWS will be limited/reduced. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Kallas AVIATION.......Bersch