308
FXUS63 KGRB 222348
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
648 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible at times this afternoon and
  again Thursday, mainly across northern and central Wisconsin.

- Rivers over central Wisconsin may reach bankfull or even briefly
  surpass flood stage on Thursday.

- Better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday
  into Friday night. There are more chances of rain later in the
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Isolated showers and storms developed across west-central
Wisconsin and near the Upper Michigan border this afternoon.
Some of these showers and storms will move into central and
north-central Wisconsin late this afternoon into early this
evening. Any storms are not expected to severe. The rain should
come to an end an hour or two after sunset. Overnight, skies will
become clear with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Mostly sunny
skies will prevail on Thursday with highs in the 70s with
afternoon relative humidity values down to 35 to 50 percent.

Tranquil conditions should prevail Thursday night. Have removed
the small chances of rain late Thursday night as the latest models
are trending a little slower. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread from west to east during the day Friday and linger into
Friday night before ending. Severe storms are not anticipated at
this time, but some of the stronger storms could produce gusty
winds and small hail. The system will move east of the area
Friday night, bringing an end to the rain with tranquil conditions
expected on Saturday.

There are some differences in the models on Sunday into Memorial
Day as low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes. The
track of the system will make a difference in the chances of
rain and how much rain would fall across the area. At this time,
the track of the low is expected to stay south of the area which
would limit any risk of severe storms. Any upper level disturbance
will bring a chance of showers and a few storms on Tuesday with
Wednesday mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief localized IFR/MVFR
until 01z-02z over far northeast WI to east-central WI. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at all the TAF sites through Thursday
afternoon. A pop-up shower could impact RHI, but coverage too low
to include in the TAF for now. Gusty surface winds will ease late
this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will be considerably
lighter on Thursday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......JLA