Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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785 FXUS63 KGRB 230341 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1041 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible at times this afternoon and again Thursday, mainly across northern and central Wisconsin. - Rivers over central Wisconsin may reach bankfull or even briefly surpass flood stage on Thursday. - Better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. There are more chances of rain later in the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Isolated showers and storms developed across west-central Wisconsin and near the Upper Michigan border this afternoon. Some of these showers and storms will move into central and north-central Wisconsin late this afternoon into early this evening. Any storms are not expected to severe. The rain should come to an end an hour or two after sunset. Overnight, skies will become clear with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Mostly sunny skies will prevail on Thursday with highs in the 70s with afternoon relative humidity values down to 35 to 50 percent. Tranquil conditions should prevail Thursday night. Have removed the small chances of rain late Thursday night as the latest models are trending a little slower. Showers and thunderstorms will spread from west to east during the day Friday and linger into Friday night before ending. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time, but some of the stronger storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. The system will move east of the area Friday night, bringing an end to the rain with tranquil conditions expected on Saturday. There are some differences in the models on Sunday into Memorial Day as low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes. The track of the system will make a difference in the chances of rain and how much rain would fall across the area. At this time, the track of the low is expected to stay south of the area which would limit any risk of severe storms. Any upper level disturbance will bring a chance of showers and a few storms on Tuesday with Wednesday mainly dry. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A stray shower will remain possible through the late evening, but most spots will stay dry tonight. Another chance for a few showers returns across northern WI Thursday afternoon, but should have little to no impact on flying conditions. A rumble of thunder will be possible but will not include. Winds will remain on the lighter side tonight, mainly under 10 kts, then pick back up again on Thursday but will not be as gusty as Wednesday, with gusts to ~20 kts expected. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......Bersch