890
FXUS63 KGRR 270757
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
357 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and storms early this morning

- Shower chances and cool air linger into midweek

- Dry Thursday and Friday

- Low risk for showers returns next weekend; warmer


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024


- Lingering showers and storms early this morning

 As the upper level low moves through northern Lower Michigan
lingering showers and storms will move through central Michigan
along the frontal boundary. The best instability and shear remains
along the far southern tier of Michigan counties. There is a
region through Mid Michigan of stronger helicity that is allowing
for light showers that will continue this morning.

- Shower chances and cool air linger into midweek

Though the upper level low will open up with predominately zonal
flow the mid to low levels will be positively tilted allowing for
a strong gradient across Lake Michigan. That gradient will cause
downsloping flow which coupled with cold air advection will bring
gusty winds through the day. Expect gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph
today.
 Latest CAMS soundings show further evidence of moist low to mid
levels. That should correlate to mostly cloudy skies through the
daytime. While some breaks in the clouds aren`t out of the
question, this Memorial day should be cloudy and windy. While the
best moisture is through northern lower peninsula there is enough
PWATs that coupled with NW flow across the lake to allow for
light showers and perhaps some storms this afternoon into early
evening, especially through far southwest Michigan near the
lakeshore.

Models continue to show a shortwave diving southeast through the
base of the longwave trough overhead Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This brings more showers across the area then departs early
Wednesday. However lingering sfc troughiness and cold air aloft
could result in a few widely scattered diurnally driven showers
redeveloping Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially over srn
sections.

- Dry Thursday and Friday

Then a couple sunny/pleasant days are in store for Thursday and
Friday as the center of a cool/dry Canadian sfc high passes
overhead. Wednesday night and Thursday night will be fairly chilly
nights and can`t even rule out some patchy frost across far nrn
sections.

- Low risk for rain returns next weekend; warmer

Fcst confidence currently low regarding rain chances next weekend as
model solutions diverge. The ECMWF is more progressive and is
sending showers/storms back into the picture by Saturday whereas the
GFS is holding on to ridging aloft and keeping things dry through
late Sunday. At this point will have low end 20-30 pct pops next
weekend with temps returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Only a minimal thunder threat remains for the overnight period and
mainly just near AZO/BTL/JXN. Otherwise expect IFR cigs to become
more widespread/persistent overnight then linger for much of
Monday, with some local LIFR cigs also possible. Scattered
showers also lingering Monday which could result in occasional
vsbys 4-6SM. Winds increasing out of the west to 15 to 25 kt by
18Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

No changes as far as the  Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards
for Memorial Day. High confidence exists for winds to increase to
20 knots or higher and waves to reach 4 feet for much of the area.
Areas north of Whitehall should have a delay in the onset of
hazardous conditions as the surface low will be in that region
this morning. However by noon conditions will deteriorate across
all zones.
- Cloudy Weather with chance of showers and possible storms today
&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade/Ceru
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Ceru