Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
891 FXUS63 KGRR 230558 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 158 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Convection over Wisconsin has all but dissipated as it moved east with sunset and loss of diurnal heating. IR loop shows mostly clear skies over the cwa. No changes are planned for forecast at this time. Very comfortable temperatures are expected overnight with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 - Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve Quiet weather through Thursday night...then a cold front will be pushing through the CWA Friday evening. Scattered showers/storms will be developing along and ahead of this feature as it moves in. Models do varying with how much surface based instability will develop. The GFS/Nam have been featuring the most with values topping 1000 J/kg into the evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian have kept values mostly under 500 J/kg and have the instability focused over southwest parts of the CWA. The winds at 500 mb are not projected to be very strong, under 30 knots. There will be a low level jet in that area, 30 to 35 knots that will likely enhance the potential for storms. With lower values of deep layer shear, any storms that develop will likely be pulse in nature. Overall though with several models struggling to develop any instability, confidence on their occurrence is low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Surface high pressure will bring VFR weather to the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Mainly clear skies are expected through the period. No restrictions to visibility are anticipated. Southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots this morning will become west at 5 to 15 knots this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Waves are still near or above 4 feet this afternoon but winds are slowly decreasing and only a few gusts over 25 knots are expected for the rest of the afternoon. Winds and waves will be decreasing into Thursday and Friday then increasing on Saturday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...04 DISCUSSION...MJS/Ostuno AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Ostuno