Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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560 FXUS63 KGRR 271735 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 135 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower chances and cool air linger into midweek - Dry Thursday and Friday - Low risk for showers returns next weekend; warmer && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The winds and waves continue to increase this morning and most sites were seeing waves in the 3 to 4 foot range. They are projected to go up another foot or so. As a result, we will maintain the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement for today. We did lower the thunder risk for this morning. Projected instability plots have little support for thunder in our CWA over the next few hours. The risk looks better tonight as the potent mid level wave in the Upper Plains moves into MI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 - Shower chances and cool air linger into midweek Though the upper level low will open up with predominately zonal flow the mid to low levels will be positively tilted allowing for a strong gradient across Lake Michigan. That gradient will cause downsloping flow which coupled with cold air advection will bring gusty winds through the day. Expect gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph today. Latest CAMS soundings show further evidence of moist low to mid levels. That should correlate to mostly cloudy skies through the daytime. While some breaks in the clouds aren`t out of the question, this Memorial day should be cloudy and windy. While the best moisture is through northern lower peninsula there is enough PWATs that coupled with NW flow across the lake to allow for light showers and perhaps some storms this afternoon into early evening, especially through far southwest Michigan near the lakeshore. Models continue to show a shortwave diving southeast through the base of the longwave trough overhead Tuesday into Tuesday night. This brings more showers across the area then departs early Wednesday. However lingering sfc troughiness and cold air aloft could result in a few widely scattered diurnally driven showers redeveloping Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially over srn sections. - Dry Thursday and Friday Then a couple sunny/pleasant days are in store for Thursday and Friday as the center of a cool/dry Canadian sfc high passes overhead. Wednesday night and Thursday night will be fairly chilly nights and can`t even rule out some patchy frost across far nrn sections. - Low risk for rain returns next weekend; warmer Fcst confidence currently low regarding rain chances next weekend as model solutions diverge. The ECMWF is more progressive and is sending showers/storms back into the picture by Saturday whereas the GFS is holding on to ridging aloft and keeping things dry through late Sunday. At this point will have low end 20-30 pct pops next weekend with temps returning to slightly above normal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 We are looking at an extended period of impacts via low clouds through much of this forecast period. Low pressure nearby with plenty of low level moisture is responsible for this. We haven`t had many showers this morning, but more drizzle with a lack of deep moisture. The drizzle may diminish a bit, but the MVFR to LIFR ceilings will persist. There may be some local fluctuations. Overnight, ceilings should tend to drop with night time cooling taking place with cloud heights lowering some as a result. Winds will also be diminishing a bit. Ceilings should improve on Tuesday morning after sunrise with diurnal mixing taking place, and somewhat drier air moving in. A few showers could be possible about anytime at all terminals. It might take a while, but conditions should go MVFR at all sites, and then VFR toward the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 No changes as far as the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards for Memorial Day. High confidence exists for winds to increase to 20 knots or higher and waves to reach 4 feet for much of the area. Areas north of Whitehall should have a delay in the onset of hazardous conditions as the surface low will be in that region this morning. However by noon conditions will deteriorate across all zones. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS DISCUSSION...Meade/Ceru AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Ceru