891
FXUS63 KGRR 230558
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
158 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Convection over Wisconsin has all but dissipated as it moved east
with sunset and loss of diurnal heating. IR loop shows mostly
clear skies over the cwa. No changes are planned for forecast at
this time. Very comfortable temperatures are expected overnight
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

- Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve

Quiet weather through Thursday night...then a cold front will be
pushing through the CWA Friday evening. Scattered showers/storms
will be developing along and ahead of this feature as it moves in.
Models do varying with how much surface based instability will
develop. The GFS/Nam have been featuring the most with values
topping 1000 J/kg into the evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian
have kept values mostly under 500 J/kg and have the instability
focused over southwest parts of the CWA.

The winds at 500 mb are not projected to be very strong, under 30
knots. There will be a low level jet in that area, 30 to 35 knots
that will likely enhance the potential for storms. With lower
values of deep layer shear, any storms that develop will likely be
pulse in nature. Overall though with several models struggling to
develop any instability, confidence on their occurrence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Surface high pressure will bring VFR weather to the TAF sites over
the next 24 hours. Mainly clear skies are expected through the
period. No restrictions to visibility are anticipated. Southwest
winds of 5 to 10 knots this morning will become west at 5 to 15
knots this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Waves are still near or above 4 feet this afternoon but winds are
slowly decreasing and only a few gusts over 25 knots are expected
for the rest of the afternoon. Winds and waves will be decreasing
into Thursday and Friday then increasing on Saturday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...MJS/Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Ostuno