231
FNUS73 KGRR 160736
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Cornish South Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
336 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
It will be mild today with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s.
There is a chance of showers and storms beginning late this afternoon
and mainly for tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the day.
Temperature.........70 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the day.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5200 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........South 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....160 /fair/ at ignition. Max...570 /good/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
Sky (%).........39     52     72     81     84     86
Weather cov.....              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............70     73     75     76     73     66
RH..............55     51     50     50     55     75
20 ft wind......S 6    S 7    S 7    S 8    S 7    S 3
20 ft wind gust.9      12     13     14     12     9
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   5200   4900   4300   800    400
Mixing wind.....S 8    S 8    S 12   SW 13  S 9    S 7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3
Smoke disprsl...160    420    570    550    70     30

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Min 57.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast around
                    5 mph late at night becoming light becoming
                    south around 5 mph toward daybreak becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 7 to 10 mph decreasing to 6 to 9 mph
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....20 (poor).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until midday. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 76.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds early in the morning becoming south
                    5 to 6 mph, then shifting to the southwest late
                    in the day becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....60 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    260 (fair) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Laurens
Requested by...Tom Barnes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414336.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barnest2@michigan.gov