276
FXUS62 KGSP 220550
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the
middle of the week with a few showers and storms possible each
afternoon over the mountains. Rain chances increase Thursday and
remain in the forecast each day through Tuesday.  Several weak waves
of low pressure will move from the lower Mississippi Valley to the
Carolinas.  Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday: Stratocu has mostly dissipated, but
increasing cirrus can be seen spreading in from the west on the
nighttime RGB product. Guidance has backed off their depictions of
mountain stratus and valley fog, but some will likely form before
daybreak. Lows will drop to the lower 60s across most of the area.

Otherwise, another day of generally suppressed weather is expected
today.  The lack of any discernible source of organized lift paired
with lapse rates at least as poor as yesterday`s should preclude
much, if any, convection from occurring; instead, we can expect
another mostly dry and quiet day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tue: A series of short waves will cross the area in
generally westerly flow aloft. This will bring increasing chances of
mainly diurnal convection Thursday and Friday. That said, showers
may linger overnight, especially across the mountains. Instability
may rise into the moderate range Thursday, but a weakening warm nose
may linger keeping the better instability over the mountains, and
possibly into the I-85 corridor, especially if the forcing overcomes
the warm nose. Bulk shear will approach 50 knots, so a severe storm
or two will be possible if the instability and shear can overlap.
Temps will be around 5 degrees above normal.

Looks to be a better chance of realizing moderate sbCAPE Friday as
the warm nose appears to fully erode. Bulk shear drops back to
around 40 knots, but a few severe storms will be possible again
given the forcing and dCAPE values. Temps remain nearly steady.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tue: The active pattern continues as short waves move
through the generally westerly flow and across the area. With the
strongest wave moving in on Tuesday. This will least to continued
chances of diurnal convection, with lingering nocturnal showers as
weak surface features move through in association with the waves.
Too soon to tell if any of the days have a better severe storm
chance than the others, but they are possible. Also, heavy rainfall
chances will steadily increase as PW values increase with each wave.
Isolated flooding would be possible in areas that receive rounds of
heavy rainfall. Well above normal temps on Saturday drop a few
degrees by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected at most TAF
sites through the period. The only exception is KAVL, where a
brief period of MVFR vsby in BR may occur toward daybreak. With
high pressure holding on today, guidance shows little convection
expected this aftn. A few isolated showers may develop along
mountain ridges, but coverage too sparse to mention at KAVL. The
Piedmont is expected to be dry with just fair wx cu forming in the
aftn. Winds will be light, picking up to 5-10 kt this aftn out of
the S/SW, then becoming light again this evening.

Outlook: More numerous showers and thunderstorms, along with
associated flight restrictions, will return with a cold front late
Thursday into Friday. A more active pattern may persist through
early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK