194
FXUS62 KGSP 280515
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
115 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday through Saturday. By the
end of next weekend, high pressure will become centered near Bermuda
which creates a southerly flow with more humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday: No major changes to the forecast at this
time. A few minor adjustments to T/Td due to the slower paced fropa
taking its time to cross the mountains. Radar does dhow a few
showers dissipating near the TN/NC border, but all clear through the
rest of the CWA. Fog development is not expected tonight given the
drier air moving in.

The aforementioned cold front will enter the CFWA overnight and
complete a full fropa just before daybreak Tuesday. Winds will turn
to a west-northwesterly to northwesterly component, dry air
entrainment prevails through the rest of the period. A few showers
may develop behind the front along the NC/TN border after the front
passes just before midnight tonight, but that`s about all that will
be squeezed out of what`s left in the shallow layer of low-level
moisture. Broad upper troughiness will set up shop over the eastern
CONUS through the end of the near-term as heights drop a few dm.
Post-frontal conditions will be in store for Tuesday as a downslope
component filters in and dewpoints lower into the 50s, with highs
still managing to reach the low to mid 80s for most locations
outside of the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...The short range period begins with nearly
zonal flow aloft as a cP sfc high builds south out of Canada. This
airmass will mix into the fcst area thru the period and help
maintain low RH values during the afternoon and the overnight
periods. Thus, a dense fog threat will be quite limited. With near
normal temps each afternoon, conds will be rather pleasant due to
the prevailing dry air. The latest GFS continues to show a weak
bndry ahead of the sfc high bringing limited amts of llvl moisture
to the wrn NC mtns Wed evening, but confidence is too low for a PoP
mention as other guidance mixes in a good amt of dry air within the
bndry convg zone.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...Upper heights fall quickly early in the ext
range as a strong ulvl trof swings south over the ern CONUS. This
trof will provide upward vertical forcing, however, precip
generation will be quite limited due to a broad Canadian high
shunting GOM and Atl moisture transport into the FA. The column
remains deeply dry Fri and Sat, with the best chance for precip
possibly not returning until Sun as a srn stream h5 s/w advances
toward the area. Even this low precip potential is uncertain as the
ECMWF is the only op model showing any QPF response as the other
models keep a GOM moisture feed closed. Temps will cool a little in
this environment as the cP airmass builds in more fully. Highs will
likely be held a couple degrees below normal Fri thru the weekend,
while lows remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. No fog concerns with drier air moving into
the region tonight. A front crosses into the area overnight and will
shift winds to prevail NW. Winds will remain light outside the
mountains with a few gusts up to 20-25kts will be possible tomorrow
afternoon at KAVL.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails
through the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/CP/TW
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CP