531
FXUS62 KGSP 280142
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
942 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday through Saturday. By the
end of next weekend, high pressure will become centered near Bermuda
which creates a southerly flow with more humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 937 PM EDT Monday: A couple showers and thunderstorms have
developed early this evening from Gaffney to Davidson. These storms
have struggled to deepen significantly, likely owing to a
substantial mid- and upper-level layer of very dry air sampled on
latest ACARS soundings at the Charlotte airport. Substantial dry air
entrainment is limiting updraft potential and thus keeping any
severe weather threat at bay. Locally gusty winds of 40-50mph will
still be possible with any stronger cores, however. These storms
should dissipate within the next couple hours as what instability is
present will wane quickly with loss of heating. Updated PoPs to
reflect these trends, but the rest of the forecast remains on track
with no changes needed.

The aforementioned cold front will enter the CFWA from the west later
this evening and complete a full fropa just before daybreak Tuesday.
Winds will turn to a west-northwesterly to northwesterly component,
dry air entrainment prevails through the rest of the period. A few
showers may develop behind the front along the NC/TN border after
the front passes just before midnight tonight, but that`s about all
that will be squeezed out of what`s left in the shallow layer of low-
level moisture. Broad upper troughiness will set up shop over the
eastern CONUS through the end of the near-term as heights drop a few
dm. Post-frontal conditions will be in store for Tuesday as a
downslope component filters in and dewpoints lower into the 50s,
with highs still managing to reach the low to mid 80s for most
locations outside of the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...The short range period begins with nearly
zonal flow aloft as a cP sfc high builds south out of Canada. This
airmass will mix into the fcst area thru the period and help
maintain low RH values during the afternoon and the overnight
periods. Thus, a dense fog threat will be quite limited. With near
normal temps each afternoon, conds will be rather pleasant due to
the prevailing dry air. The latest GFS continues to show a weak
bndry ahead of the sfc high bringing limited amts of llvl moisture
to the wrn NC mtns Wed evening, but confidence is too low for a PoP
mention as other guidance mixes in a good amt of dry air within the
bndry convg zone.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...Upper heights fall quickly early in the ext
range as a strong ulvl trof swings south over the ern CONUS. This
trof will provide upward vertical forcing, however, precip
generation will be quite limited due to a broad Canadian high
shunting GOM and Atl moisture transport into the FA. The column
remains deeply dry Fri and Sat, with the best chance for precip
possibly not returning until Sun as a srn stream h5 s/w advances
toward the area. Even this low precip potential is uncertain as the
ECMWF is the only op model showing any QPF response as the other
models keep a GOM moisture feed closed. Temps will cool a little in
this environment as the cP airmass builds in more fully. Highs will
likely be held a couple degrees below normal Fri thru the weekend,
while lows remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. A cumulus field early this evening will
dissipate with loss of heating with only a few high clouds streaming
overhead tonight. A front will drop into the evening overnight and
will shift winds to out of the northwest. A few wind gusts up to 20-
25kts will be possible again tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Drier weather is expected Tuesday thru the end of the
week with VFR conditions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/TW
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...TW