Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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589 FXUS62 KGSP 270217 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1017 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures remain above normal through Monday. There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms from this evening until the cold front passes Monday evening. Cooler and drier conditions return tuesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1002 PM EDT Sunday: A very busy evening is finally starting to wind down as the last bit of lingering convection over the Charlotte metro shifts east and out of the forecast area. An isolated severe storm will remain possible across mainly the southern portions of Charlotte through midnight with the main threat being locally damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. Thereafter, a lull in activity is expected through a good bit of the overnight. Locations that saw rain today will have a chance for fog development until high clouds return in advance of the next round of storms. Intense upstream convection is ongoing across the Ohio Valley with storms rapidly organizing into a large QLCS. This line will race across Kentucky and Tennessee overnight and will be on our doorstep during the predawn hours (roughly 4-5am). Robust storms are anticipated to move into the mountains where a threat for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will exist. CAMs have been consistent in wanting to rapidly weaken the line as it moves through the mountains with only a band of showers and a few thunderstorms surviving into the Foothills/Upstate. At least a low-end severe threat may persist east of the mountains should the line maintain intensity longer than indicated by guidance. Otherwise, a final round of storms will be possible during peak heating on Monday, but will need a few factors to come together for it to reach its full potential. This one will be dependent on how much the environment recovers from the early morning convection and if the atmosphere regenerates more instability. As of now, CAMs do exactly that, with dewpoints in the uppers 60s to near 70 and instability quickly redeveloping by peak heating, ahead of an incoming cold front. Deep layer shear will remain elevated (35-45 kts) and curved hodographs would support rotating supercells on Monday. The question will be if we can tap into any surface instability to take advantage of the otherwise really good kinematics in place. If instability becomes realized Monday afternoon, all three hazards will be possible (large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) with upscale growth by the time the storms get into the eastern zones and east of the CFWA. The only thing about this forecast is that it will remain uncertain until we see what happens with the second round of convection that`s expected overnight. Decided to lower temperatures slightly for Monday as convective debris will be hard to shake off, especially during the morning hours. As a result, afternoon highs on Monday will be at or slightly above normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 PM Sunday...Upper heights remain nearly zonal Tue which will help maintain dry conds and temps warming about 5-7 degrees abv normal. Surface td/s will mix out deeper than Mon and expect lower RH values making for a rather nice feeling day. Heights and thicknesses begin to drop Tue night thru Wed and with a cP airmass mixing in, don`t envision a good chance of precip associated with incoming mlvl s/w Wed afternoon. So, kept the fcst dry and again another nice feeling day with low RH and highs closer to normal. Dry conds continue thru the overnight periods and really no good chance of dense fog as sfc tdd/s generally average arnd 10 F across the fcst area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday...No sigfnt changes were made to the ext range fcst. Still expect a mostly dry period as the mean h8-h5 flow aligns w/ly to nw/ly and continues to reinforce a cP airmass building down the east coast. The latest GFS swings a rather strong h5 s/w thru the pattern Fri, but moisture looks too limited to introduce precip. The going showery activity was maintained Sat as another ulvl wave approaches from the west which will have a better llvl GOM connection. Deep convection looks limited with this system, however, as the wave runs into a strong ridging aloft possibly subduing tstm development. Temps will remain arnd normal levels each and a limited fog potential continues each night due mainly to sfc dryness. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms continue to impact the area with temporary restrictions possible at all terminals through the evening hours. A break in the storms is expected overnight before a second line of convection moves through the area during the early to mid morning hours. Associated visibility and ceilings restrictions can be expected. Thereafter, gusty winds are expected through the afternoon. A final round of storms will be possible during the afternoon hours, but confidence is low as to whether this activity will be able to develop. Outlook: Drier weather is expected by midweek. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CAC/TW SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...TW