534
FXUS62 KGSP 290509
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Wednesday: No major changes for this updates
as winds have mostly calmed across the area. Drier air continues
to stream in and should keep any fog development away for the
night. Weather is quiet.

Otherwise, synoptic cold front and sfc trough remain stalled along
the Atlantic coast, with cyclonic upper flow over the eastern CONUS.
Ridging will strengthen over the CWA through the near term as an
upper trough makes slight eastward progress. Continuing relatively
dry westerly flow, combined with diurnal mixing this aftn lowering
crossover temp, suggests minimal fog tonight despite fairly good
radiational cooling conditions; min temps will end up 2-3 degrees
below normal. Ridge should reinforce capping inversion and inhibit
deep convection again on Wednesday. A shortwave rotating through the
trough will however strengthen the low-level gradient; along with
deeper mixing as a result of lower dewpoints that suggests slightly
windier conditions Wednesday. Max temps however will trend down a
couple degrees, returning to about normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1253 AM EDT Wednesday: The remainder of the work week
continues to look relatively benign across our region as we should
remain under a NW to N flow aloft between the upper trof that
digs down from the lower Great Lakes to the area offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic region and the upper ridge that migrates slowly east
from the MS Valley region to the Appalachians. For the most part,
this pattern supports high pressure building down from the upper
Great Lakes, finally reaching the western Carolinas by Saturday
morning. There is one interesting development in the new GFS...and
that is the vigorous short wave dropping down to dig the eastern
upper trof down across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday
evening. The wave brings a good shot of mid-level DPVA which
could support some shower development over the NC Piedmont, but
for now the moisture looks to be lacking, and the model guidance
fails to respond much. A few of the CAMs show isolated showers
dropping down in the NW flow late Thursday, so expect a trend
toward including some small precip prob over the western Piedmont
in future cycles. The pattern supports keeping temps below normal,
maybe a category on the highs, and about five degrees on the lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday: The aforementioned upper ridge axis will
drift over the area and shift offshore by the second half of the
weekend. In this case, return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will
filter back into the region. Saturday will likely be the last
"nice" day we experience before the pattern becomes active once
again. Model guidance still suggests a series of shortwaves
to cross across the southeastern CONUS through the end of the
forecast period. This will place the CFWA back into a diurnally
driven convective regime, with some enhancement with each passing
shortwave. Temperatures will gradually creep back up to near-normal
values and even above normal by the end of the medium range,
including the dreadful humid airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions continue at all
terminals through the end of the forecast period. A stream of upper
stratocu across the southern part of the area will move out
overnight, leaving SKC at most sites. A few upper cirrus could move
in during the daylight hours but CIGS will remain VFR. Winds have
gone light to calm across all terminals and won`t pick back up until
the morning hours. A few low-end gusts are likely at most sites, but
will diminish by the evening hours. Winds will prevail N/NW for the
entire TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist with the drier weather
conditions through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...CP