547
FXUS62 KGSP 280728
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday: Kicking off a quieter stretch of weather as
the surface cold front exits the CWA and heads out to sea. An omega
blocking pattern emerges over the CONUS and keeps the eastern trough
north of the CWA. The somewhat broad pressure gradient will allow
for some low-end wind gusts across the higher elevations Tuesday
afternoon and diminish into the overnight hours. Guidance from the
GFS and EURO keep rain chances at bay and sets up the area for
multiple days of dry conditions. Upper flow should start to turn
more NW by Tuesday night as the ridge axis over the central plains
moves eastward. Guidance has a weak and rather quick attempt of an
isolated QPF response over the far northern mountains, but there is
very little confidence. Will cap off PoPs less than anything
mentionable at this point. Temps approach the mid to upper 80s east
of the mountains with overnight temps dipping a bit due to drier air
reducing dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 AM Tuesday...The latter half of the week looks fairly
quiet for our area as we should remain under a favorable part of
an amplifying blocking pattern in the nrn stream. Guidance
indicates a slow transition between broadly cyclonic flow aloft
associated with an upper low spinning over Quebec. Meanwhile,
the upper ridge axis will move from the High Plains to the Great
Lakes/mid-MS Valley region, supporting a relatively cool
continental high that gradually builds in from the N/NW,
especially Thursday. We might not notice the high temps all that
much as they will still be close to normal, but the air mass
will be dry and that will be noticed. Low temps should be about
five degrees below normal. One wonders if this will be our last
stint of relatively cool mornings now that we are getting to the
end of May.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 237 AM Tuesday...Looks like we should get the first half
of the weekend with nice weather as a mid/upper ridge builds
in from the west, supporting high pressure, which keeps high
temps a few degrees below normal and low temps nicely cool
Friday night. However, the pattern is progressive and the model
guidance is consistent with moving the ridge axis overhead late
Saturday. Once that happens, weak sfc high pressure gets pushed
off the Carolina coast and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
will improve. Showers and thunderstorms could arrive as early as
Saturday night as a lead short wave is shown to ride up the ridge
from the west. Whether or not this takes the form of a dying MCS
remains to be seen, but that is plausible. Sunday begins a more
active period for us as we regain an air mass more favorable to
diurnal convection. Much beyond that, confidence remains low as
there is poor run-to-run consistency with how to handle the next
mid/upper trof to the west. Previous runs had a large cut-off
low and tonight`s runs bear little resemblance. Instead, we see
a series of short waves moving along in a more low amplitude
flow and a compact upper low somewhere not west of here. A common
theme is that we stay unsettled with diurnally driven or enhanced
convection, so a chance of precip will be kept for the early
part of the week. Temps climb back to a few degrees above normal,
while low temps have a more noticeable climb to something closer
to five above normal by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. No fog concerns with drier air moving into
the region tonight. A front crosses into the area overnight and will
shift winds to prevail NW. Winds will remain light outside the
mountains with a few gusts up to 20-25kts will be possible tomorrow
afternoon at KAVL.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to remain as drier weather prevails
through the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP