848
FXUS62 KGSP 191824
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming high pressure will build atop the region through the first
half of the week. Along and ahead of a stalling cold front, showers
and storms return on Thursday with chances continuing all weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday: The forecast continues to work out more or less
as planned this afternoon. A band of light precip, possibly due to
lingering deformation to the north of the sfc low seen over east
central GA, will continue to drift south over the Lakelands thru
late afternoon. Behind this band of light precip, the atmosphere is
more or less capped by a subsidence inversion, which should keep
the western Piedmont and northern Upstate shower-free. Meanwhile,
convergence across the mtns between northeasterly flow over the
Piedmont and more northerly flow over the west side of the mtns
continues to support scattered showers. This should continue
thru peak heating, with enough buoyancy to support an isolated
thunderstorm. We`ve lost the deep moisture, so the threat for
heavy rain looks minimal. Temps/dewpoints were close to fcst.

Over the next 24 hours, the remnant of the old upper system should
drift off the Southeast Coast and a positively-tilted mid/upper
ridge will slide in from the west. For the most part, this will
keep our weather fairly quiet tonight and Monday, however there
won`t be much of an air mass change and we retain relative high
moisture in the boundary layer. That could allow for some areas of
low stratus and fog later tonight, but nothing that appears to be
dense at this time. On Monday, the remnant low level moisture may
pool over the mtns just enough to allow the weak cap to be overcome
in the afternoon, resulting in some isolated shower activity. Temps
should be close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday: The warming trend will continue through
the forecast period as lower elevation max temperatures climb into
the middle 80s by Wednesday.  Building upper ridge atop the SE CONUS
will keep the atmosphere suppressed, save for diurnal isolated
ridgetop deep conection in the NC mtns Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: With developing lee trough and some
downslope warming, Thursday has the potential to be the hottest day
of the week with piedmont upper 80s possible, as long as convective
and/or debris clouds limit insolation too early in the day. It looks
like an active frontal zone is progged to approach and stall in or
near the cwfa on Thursday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.
This baroclinic zone should be able to aid in showers and tstms
becoming numerous, especially across the mountains Thursday
afternoon.  Within the wavy quasi zonal flow atop the region Friday
and into next weekend, daily, diurnally enhanced tstms are probable
each day with temperatures averaging above the late May climo.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: We continue to deal with the remnants of
an MVFR-level stratocu deck across the region east of the mtns
this afternoon. Now that it was scattering out, enough heating
should develop to more or less fill any holes with new convective
clouds, so most likely the terminals will be in-and-out of the same
MVFR-level bkn ceiling until we start to lose the daytime heating
after 22Z or so. Meanwhile, over the mtns, low level convergence
will continue to support scattered shower development, with an
isolated thunderstorm possible. This will necessitate the inclusion
of a TEMPO at KAVL for some showers thru late afternoon. By sunset,
any wind gusts should go away and we should start to lose the
lowest cloud layer, and we should be left only with some lingering
scattered clouds. A light NE wind should remain overnight with high
pressure to our north. Some of the guidance redevelops another
low cloud deck around sunrise across the Piedmont, but this is
low confidence at this time and was not included as a ceiling with
this package. Monday looks nice a quiet.

Outlook: Stronger high pressure settles over the region Monday
and persists through midweek, but isolated mountaintop convection
still appears possible both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Precip
and restrictions possible with next front arriving circa Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM