Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
207 FXPQ50 PGUM 271949 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 549 AM ChST Tue May 28 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery is showing a few clouds moving in to the Marianas waters with partly cloudy skies over the islands. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are observed in the coastal waters by altimetry. && .Discussion... The region continues to be affected by a dry pattern with surface divergence seen spread across all the waters. There are a few weak troughs within the flow upstream, so expect a few showers today. There is still much moisture to the south but mostly thick cirrus. Still possible to see a slight uptick in showers and possibly thunderstorms late week with the TUTT moving across the region, but not by much, and will probably be localized, if any. && .Marine... Northwest swell is expected to start increasing as Typhoon Ewiniar moves out to more open waters, wave models show 2 to 3 feet reaching the Marianas waters. Sea heights look to remain in the 3 to 5 foot range for the week, but may increase one foot. && .Eastern Micronesia... Little change has been made to the forecast. Satellite imagery and model guidance continue to indicate an ITCZ- like pattern bringing a compact zone of heavy convection over Pohnpei today, in addition to on-and-off showers across Kosrae and Majuro the next few days. Conditions are expected to improve over Pohnpei as an average trade- wind pattern returns across the region. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will remain as such for much of the week, mainly influenced by the background trade swell. && .Western Micronesia... Trade convergence over Pohnpei will move westward over Weno today generating numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. A trade-wind trough east of Yap and Palau will generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. Latest model guidance continues to show a persistent trade-wind pattern with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected at Yap and Palau through at least Wednesday. Models show a weak ridge will moving over the area and keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated during the latter part of this week into the early part of the weekend. Benign sea conditions and mainly gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through at least early this weekend. Altimetry data this morning shows combined seas of 3 to 5 feet. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Hong Eastern Micronesia: Montvila Western Micronesia: Kelly