459
FXUS61 KGYX 191104
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
704 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure strengthens over the region and just offshore
early next week with dry conditions and well above normal
temperatures. Scattered showers return by late Wednesday into
Thursday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region.
An upper level trough will keep scattered showers over the
region Friday. High pressure builds in from the north next
weekend, bringing a return to cooler conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Plenty of low clouds continue across the region per latest
surface observations and satellite imagery. HREF probs remain
high for much of the day for western Maine and New Hampshire.
Some mixing does occur over western New Hampshire this afternoon
where there will be some sunshine.

An shower that forms today will be brief and light. Have
introduced some patchy drizzle this morning for the mountains
and foothills where a few echoes have developed this morning.
Otherwise, just minor tweaks to the temperature, dew point and
wind forecast.

Prev Disc...
Latest radar imagery continues to show showers near the
Midcoast region and offshore early this morning associated with
low pressure that will slowly move east today. Plenty of low
level moisture will continue across western Maine and New
Hampshire however. The latest HREF solution suggests the low
clouds will continue today with the most breaks in the cloud
shield over western New Hampshire today. The latest HRRR also
brings a few widely scattered, light showers to portions of the
region today. However, it will be difficult to pinpoint
precisely when and where these brief showers will pop up.

Sufficient cloud cover in the forecast to hold off on a cold
water SPS today. Again, the best chance for any potential
clearing would be western New Hampshire. This will need to be
monitored today.

The morning fog and low cloud cover will limit temperatures to
the 60s today for most locations. Some portions of the coastline
may not make it out of the 50s, while locations along the
Connecticut River Valley top out in the lower 70s potentially.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Patchy fog will return tonight with plenty of low level moisture
still in place. Any light and widely scattered precipitation
will end after sunset. Lows will drop back into the 40s.

High pressure will begin to slowly settle south of our region
on Monday. Slightly drier air will begin to advect into our
forecast area at that time. This will allow for more sunshine
and temperatures climbing into the 70s away from the coast.
Right along the coast, expect temperatures to be limited to the
60s for high temperatures which will probably be reached in the
late morning due to the development of an afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview... Heat makes its season debut this week as a ridge
builds across the Eastern US. Temps gradually rise through
midweek, and then humidity begins to increase late in the week
ahead of a cold front. The front likely arrives sometime late in
the week or early next weekend, but uncertainty remains on the
arrival timeframe of this slowing front in the presence of the
ridge.

Details...

This week will be dominated by a warm and summer-like weather
pattern. In the presence of anomalously low pressure across
much of the US and the Central Atlantic, an area of high
pressure develops off the Eastern Seaboard. This sets up an
increasing southerly flow by the beginning of the week, which
gradually turns more southwesterly by midweek. Mostly sunny
skies are expected for the duration of this timeframe, but some
isolated mountain showers are possible across the mountains
early and mid week in the afternoon.

Temperatures gradually rise each day from Tuesday through
Wednesday. 70s to low 80s are expected inland, while the
coastline remains in the 60s with increasing southeasterly flow.
By Tuesday, a warmer airmass continues to stream in, with winds
becoming more southerly. This sends most areas away from the
immediate coastline into the 80s, with upper 80s expected across
southern New Hampshire. The coastline likely holds onto onshore
flow most of the day, with temps in the 60s along the MidCoast,
to low 70s along the southern coastline. Wednesday looks to be
the warmest day, with a south-southwesterly flow pushing the
heat to the southern coastline. 80s are expected in most spots,
with temps near 90 degrees across southern and western New
Hampshire. The MidCoast will be a notable exception, with temps
holding in the 60s with onshore flow continuing. Humidity will
generally be low through this time frame, with dew points mainly
in the 50s. This actually is dry enough to help shave a few
degrees off the heat indices from the air temps.

By Thursday and Friday, humidity begins to increase as a cold
front approaches and helps draw up some moisture from the south.
There remains uncertainty on the timing of this front amongst
the ensembles. While the current forecast holds with NBM dew
points, there is likely to be a period of time where dew points
surge into the upper 60s ahead of the front late in the week.
Temps look to be trending downward during this time frame as
more clouds and showers arrive. Showers and storms are expected
to accompany the cold front when it arrives, but with the timing
uncertainty POPs remain in the chance to low likely range
during this timeframe. By next weekend, cooler air is expected
to arrive as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will continue this
morning with a few terminals dropping towards IFR. Fog will
dissipate this morning, so conditions should become VFR today
before more patchy fog develops Monday night. Winds remain light
through the period with onshore winds due to sea breezes near
the coast during the afternoon.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most
terminals from Monday through Thursday, but some coastal fog is
possible at times at RKD Wednesday and Thursday. Showers and
some thunderstorms bring brief restrictions on Thursday and
Friday, especially to northern terminals. VFR conditions likely
return by next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA seas look to continue through today as slow
moving low pressure passes east of the waters. Seas look to calm
below SCA thresholds tonight and Monday as high pressure begins
to build over the waters. Northeasterly winds will diminish
somewhat on Monday.

Long Term...High pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard
this week, bringing increasing south to southwesterly flow.
Areas of dense marine fog possible by midweek. SCA conditions
are possible by Thursday with increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT AND LONG TERM...Cannon