781
FXUS61 KGYX 311716 AAD
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
116 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will make for warm and mostly dry days in the
short term with breezy northwesterly winds. A few light showers
will be possible today in east-central ME but amounts will be
minimal at best. A warming trend will begin this weekend with
any chances for showers remaining minimal. These mild and
generally dry conditions are expected to persist through at
least the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM Update...Temperatures running ahead of previous forecast
so have boosted them for the late morning hours...but overall
little change to afternoon highs. CU field is beginning to
bubble and have incorporated latest mesoscale guidance into the
PoP forecast for the afternoon with an isolated shower or two
possible for Somerset County through the Capitol region to the
Mid Coast. No other significant changes at this time.

945 AM Update...Going forecast in very good shape this
morning...and matched temperatures/dewpoints to recent
observations while lowering near term cloud cover in line with
GOES-16 visible imagery. Will keep an eye on any afternoon
shower activity over our eastern zones as morning GYX RAOB
paints an inverted V profile and would not be surprised to see
decent gusts beneath any /even light/ showers that develop...if
indeed they do in this moisture-starved boundary layer.

720 AM Update...Quick update to drop the frost advisories as
temperatures round the bend and begin quickly rising this
morning.  No other changes attm.

610 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast other than some
minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures early this
morning.

Previously...

A weak pressure trough will move across the forecast area as an
upper level trough also moves eastward overhead. The net result
will be little in the way of fanfare, other than a period of BKN
clouds this afternoon with a chance of showers in our far
eastern zones. Otherwise, a warm and breezy day is expected for
all of our area. Strong enough opposing flow will likely allow
for the seabreeze to remain offshore except perhaps the
peninsulas and islands this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Another mostly clear night is expected tonight with light winds.
Pockets of radiational cooling are expected, especially in the
far interior, but temperatures should be just high enough to
preclude anything more than patchy frost. Utilized a blend of
MOS guidance for tonight.

Sunny skies with a northwest breeze expected on Saturday. With
high pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine we expect a cooler
onshore flow to develop on the coast by late afternoon.
Otherwise, highs look to be well into the 70s most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A rather quiet weather pattern in the long term with moderating
temperatures. Next chance of widespread showers will hold off
until late next week.

In the dailies: On Sunday a weak warm front will lift north.
This may bring a period of mid to upper level clouds but
moisture appears to be limited. High pressure establishes itself
overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high pushes offshore on
Wednesday as low pressure moves to the Western Great Lakes. As
that low moves into Southern Canada on Thursday, a cold front
will pivot around the low and approach the region during the
day. This will result in an area of showers and possible
thunderstorms later in the day and beyond. Have added patchy
marine fog each night starting Monday Night.

High temperatures will range from the 70`s to lower 80`s with
seabreezes cooling immediate coastal areas and islands. Low
temperatures will moderate from the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday
morning to the mid 50s to around 60 by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: High pressure will gradually build towards the region
through the period bringing quiet weather conditions with
moderate northwesterly winds.

Restrictions:  VFR conditions are expected to dominate through
Saturday night. There is a low potential for a rain shower at
AUG-RKD through this evening...but no restrictions are expected.

Winds: Northwest winds 10g18kts will quickly diminish to calm/light-
variable for the overnight hours. The only exception is at RKD where
a seabreeze will turn winds onshore around 10kts into the
evening. Any showers that develop this afternoon and evening
could bring local wind gusts to 30-35 mph. On Saturday...
northwest winds will again build to 10g18kts by late morning and
through the afternoon before going calm/light-variable Saturday
night.

LLWS: LLWS is note expected through Saturday night.

Lightning: Lightning is not expected through Saturday night.

Long Term...Expect VFR should dominate the long term period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northwesterly winds 10 to 15 kts through the
period will allow both winds and waves to remain below SCA
levels through Saturday.

Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions
through the extended forecast period. Patchy fog mainly at night
starting Monday Night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Both today and Saturday will feature gusty northwesterly winds
15 to 25 MPH with afternoon RH values dropping to between 20 to
35 percent away from the immediate coast. Despite full green-up,
some leftover 1 hour fuels could start to burn and spread.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Arnott