281
FXUS61 KGYX 030228
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1028 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to be nearby the next several days
with temperatures remaining above seasonal norms and winds
diminishing, but daily seabreezes will keep areas along the
coast slightly cooler. A few showers are possible during the
afternoons Monday through Wednesday with the next chance for
widespread showers arriving Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
0230Z Update...
Temperatures will continue to fall through the 60s and 50s late
this evening under mostly clear skies. There will be much more
in the way of high cloud cover overnight, with perhaps a mid
level deck at times. Therefore, the overnight lows should stay a
few degrees warmer than last night in most areas. Otherwise,
just minor edits for the near term portion for dew points and
winds to this update.

Update...
Sea breezes along and near the coast will diminish by
around 00Z across the region. Temperatures will drop into the
60s and 70s after sunset under mainly clear skies once again
along with light winds and relatively low dew points. Little in
the way of changes to this forecast update. Some Cirrus will
cross the region overnight.

Prev Disc...
With a 500mb ridge overhead and dry air aloft, only a very
sparse cumulus field managed to develop this afternoon in
addition to the passing cirrus. As we approach sunset, the cu
field will dissipate, but cirrus will continue to stream in from
the west this evening and most of tonight. This will keep temps
mostly in the 50s for lows tonight, but southern NH may remain
closer to 60 degrees where the cirrus may be more dense and
remain longer. However, should these clear out more quickly,
some areas may be able to reach the 40s, which seems more of a
possibility in the northern valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure centers itself over the Maritimes on
Monday with winds becoming more east to southeast. This will
allow a faster development and inland progression of the
seabreeze, which will keep coastal communities a bit cooler than
today and in the 60s to lower 70s. Across the interior, it will
be another seasonably warm day with temperatures ranging from
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

The atmosphere also won`t be as suppressed with the loss of the
shortwave ridge that`s overhead today, and with
moisture/instability profiles a little more conducive, expect
isolated-scattered showers (20-30% coverage) to develop during
the afternoon hours across inland areas.

Showers that do develop will dissipate toward sunset with no
additional precip for Monday night. Low temps for most of the
area will be in the 50s, but northern valleys and the normally
cooler spots could fall into the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Downstream low pressure will slowly move northward,
allowing a return to unsettled weather for much of the remainder
of the week. Tuesday will be dry, but expect showers to be in
the forecast Wednesday onwards. Daytime temperatures remain
around normal, with overnight lows expected to be mild.

Details: For Tuesday, low pressure off the coast of Nova Scotia
remains steadfast. This should put up enough resistance to the
west to keep most of Maine and New Hampshire dry. A few diurnal
showers will be possible in the mountains, but the better
chances come Wednesday afternoon. For temperatures, onshore flow
at the surface will play with high temp ceilings for the day.
This onshore flow will be most prevalent along the ME coast,
into the lakes region, and perhaps as far as the Kennebec
Valley. Otherwise, shore parallel flow prevents much alteration
to diurnal temperatures. Outside of the reach of this cooler
air, dry air aloft and deep mixing should allow surface temps to
push into the mid to upper 70s, with some readings around 80.

Tuesday night, upper moisture will dive out of Quebec and move
across ME and NH. This coinciding with retreat of the downstream
low will slowly saturate the column for shower chances across
the interior Wed afternoon. Remains uncertainty on amounts and
coverage, but PWATs should push above one inch during the
afternoon with building instability to develop showers or even
some storms. This will occur ahead of deeper moisture arriving
in the Northeast into Thursday.

Upper low will tumble across the Great Lakes Thursday into
Friday. This will keep unsettled, rainy conditions in the area
perhaps into early next week. The concern here would be the
repeated chances for slow moving showers or storms during the
day. NBM mean brings some central areas close to 2 inches of
measurable precip through next Wednesday, and this isnt
capturing the convective nature some of these repeat showers may
contain. So considering the deeper PWATs, slow storm motion, and
residence time of the upper low, would expect the chance for
building excessive rainfall that could eventually cause flooding
concerns. Will need to keep an eye just how prevalent
precipitation trends amid this pattern, as this can be a tall
task for guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails through Monday. A few light showers may
develop across the interior Monday afternoon, but coverage looks too
low for VCSH in any of the TAFs. For Monday night, with low-level
flow being onshore, there is increasing potential for low ceilings
and/or fog, which could yield MVFR TO IFR restrictions.

Long Term...MVFR/IFR may linger Tuesday morning, but trend
towards VFR in the afternoon. Coastal fog may develop overnight
into Wednesday morning, with SHRA expected across the interior
terminals Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled conditions are expected
for the second half of the week, which means lower ceilings amid
SHRA or perhaps TS during afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through Monday
night. Light northerly winds tonight become east to southeast on
Monday before becoming light and more out of the N-NE on Monday
night.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions are forecast, but fog may be
in vicinity mid to late week as high pressure exits and low
pressure nears late week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Cornwell