782
FXUS61 KGYX 291926
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
326 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exiting the Great Lakes region will move along
a front to our S, passing over or just south of the area
tonight. High pressure crosses the region this weekend and
builds to the south early next week. This will provide dry and
warmer conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
500 MB wave moving through base of trough near W PA attm will
track W-e staying to our S tonight. The widespread area of
convection in vicinity of PA this afternoon, should weaken some
with the loss of daytime heating, but there is some elevated
instability, enough anyway to probably keep a small cluster of
showers, which will mostly stay to our S. I think for the most
part this evening will be dry with a chance of SHRA beginning in
S NH after midnight. Clouds will thicken across the srn half of
NH and the ME coastal plain overnight as well, with lows around
50 here. Meanwhile, to the N may only see some thin cirrus
overnight, and with cool air mass in place and little wind,
should see decoupling in many spots. Forecast lows in the mtns
are generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. Temps will depend on
how thick a layer cirrus moves in later tonight, but cannot some
frost in a few spots, but not thinking itll be more than
isolated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Those showers will be a threat into at least early afternoon
along the ME coast on Thu, and it will be cloudy in the srn
areas, while it should be partly to mostly sunny in the mtns.
Maxes will be warmest in the middle of the CWA /foothills area/
and the CT valley, generally reaching around 70, while the mtns
will top out in the mid to upper 60s, and the S will be more
like 60-65. The system should move out enough that they may be
some clearing late in the day, but not a guarantee in coastal
ME. IT should clear out for Thu night, with another round of rad
cooling expected, this time across the whole CWA, with lows in
the 40s, although some upper 30s again possible in the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: Mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures are
expected through early next week before shower chances increase
towards mid-week as a frontal system approaches from the west.

Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected.

Forecast Details: Geopotential heights will begin to rise on Friday
as the h5 trough axis moves east of the region and a ridge of high
pressure builds to our south and west. Mainly sunny skies during the
morning will become partly cloudy by afternoon as the cold pool
aloft combined with sfc heating allows for some weak daytime
instability. Highs will primarily be into the 70s, although weak sfc
flow will likely allow for a sea breeze to develop, keeping coastal
locations a little cooler. Mainly clear skies on Friday night
combined with weak flow may allow for good radiational cooling
conditions. As such, blended in some MOS guidance to overnight low
temperature forecast. This places northern valleys into the upper
30s with low to middle 40s elsewhere. Some valley fog could develop
overnight as well.

High pressure will continue to build over the area on Saturday and
Saturday night as a weak sfc warm front lifts northward. Saturday
will feature partly to mostly sunny skies and warm high temperatures
into the 70s to near 80 degrees with lows into the 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures aloft warm some on Sunday with 850 mb temperatures
climbing to around +12C. This combined with afternoon mixing will
allow highs to reach the lower to middle 80s, although cooler along
the coast and mtns. Sunday night will be comfortable with lows into
the 50s. Dry conditions and mild temperatures then look to continue
on Monday and Tuesday before shower chances increase towards the
middle of next week as a frontal boundary approaches from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...A period of MVFR cigs are expected Thu morning at
KMHT/KPSM, and maybe KCON, as low pressure passes to our S.
Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through Thu night.

Long Term...VFR conditions will prevail Friday through Monday.
The exception could be on Friday night into early Saturday at
KHIE and KLEB due to valley nighttime fog. Winds will be
primarily out of the west- northwest at 10-15 kts, although a
sea breeze could develop most days with winds becoming southerly
at KPSM, KPWM, and KRKD.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure passes just S of the waters on Thu
which will show an increase in NNE winds, but winds/seas stay
below SCA criteria.

Long Term....Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds as
high pressure builds south of the waters. Some marine fog will
be possible at times, especially at night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Tubbs