Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
081 FXHW60 PHFO 250109 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 309 PM HST Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trades will focus limited showers over windward and mauka areas into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Stable and dry conditions in place this afternoon with a trade wind inversion established around 6kft per this afternoon`s soundings. Visible imagery indicates modest cloud build ups on terrain with very sparse light shower activity. The lone exception is upslope portions of windward Big Island which is on the recieving end of some light showers today. Moderate to locally breezy ESE trades continue through the forecast period with occasional fluctuations in stability due to periodic upper troughing advancing through the forecast area. Overall, only subtle changes in day-to-day weather as a quiet and relatively dry trade wind pattern prevails. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist across the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers will favor windward coasts and slopes, with greater coverage expected during the overnight hours. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in moderate showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. An uptick in windward showers tonight may require AIRMET Sierra. && .MARINE... High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of the state tonight, maintaining fresh to strong trade winds across the island chain. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters around Maui County and the Big Island, as well as the northwest Kauai waters, through 6 AM Saturday. For the windiest waters around Maui and the Big Island, the SCA runs through 6 PM Saturday. A trough will amplify and linger west of the islands this weekend into early next week, resulting in a slight easing of the trades and a shift to a more east-southeast direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters. South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south- southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of next week. East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average through Friday, followed by a slight decrease this weekend through the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Kino MARINE...TS