490
FXHW60 PHFO 250635
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
835 PM HST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the state
through much of next week. Expect moderate to locally breezy
trade winds with brief passing showers favoring windward and
mountain areas of each island in the overnight to early morning
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening over Hawaii shows high level cirrus
clouds associated with a subtropical jet stream outlining an
upper level ridge over the islands. Two upper level lows as shown
on water vapor imagery west and northwest of Kauai, will not
produce much impact to our weather over the next few days.

A fairly stable weather pattern remains in place with subsidence
inversion heights ranging from 5,000 to 7,000 feet above sea
level. This means mostly isolated to scattered showers will
prevail as trade winds push the clouds up and over the windward
mountain slopes of each island. Only isolated showers are possible
over the typically drier leeward areas. Subtle day to day changes
are forecast in island weather lasting into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade will persist across the
Hawaiian Islands through tomorrow. Sct SHRA will favor windward
and mauka areas, with greater coverage expected during the
overnight hours. Brief MVFR conds are possible in moderate
showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations on
all islands.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turb downwind of
terrain due to the breezy trade winds.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the island chain through Saturday. A Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters around Maui
County and the Big Island, as well as the northwest Kauai waters,
through 6 AM Saturday. For the windiest waters around Maui and
the Big Island, the SCA runs through 6 PM Saturday. A trough will
amplify and linger west of the islands this weekend through the
middle of next week, resulting in a slight easing of the trades
and a shift to a more east-southeast direction over the western
end of the state. Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will
prevail over the eastern waters.

South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average
through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south-
southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of
next week. East shore surf will decrease slightly this weekend
through the middle of next week as the trades ease over and
upstream of the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very
small with a slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...SMW
MARINE...Jelsema