577
FXUS64 KHGX 240437
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Overnight MCS and its associated development (via daytime heating
along/near the lingering outflow boundaries) just north of the CWA
could sneak into portions of the Brazos Valley through this even-
ing. But the main issue(s) with this activity has been the fairly
widespread blow-off cloud cover this afternoon across this region.
Per models, we could see a repeat of sorts for tomorrow afternoon
given the proximity of the dryline over Central TX and additional
disturbances embedded in the zonal mid/upper level flow. While the
"best" chances are still going to be somewhat low (POPs 20%-30%),
they should also be for mainly our NW/W counties for the late af-
ternoon/early evening hours tomorrow.

Otherwise, for the rest of SE TX, no major changes are expected as
the warm/humid summer weather persists...fueled by the moderate to
occasionally strong S/SE winds. Rain chances remain limited as the
cap persists. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should be in the mid
to upper 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 90s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The long holiday weekend is looking quite hot thanks to the
continued presence of the mid/upper subtropical ridge over Mexico
and a veering wind profile that will support WAA in the lower
levels. Inland afternoon high temperatures are expected to range
from the low/mid 90s Saturday, mid 90s on Sunday, an mid/upper 90s
on Monday. With dew points in the 70s, expect heat index values to
be ~10 degrees hotter than the actual temperatures. Much of the
region is forecast to approach Heat Advisory criteria by Sunday,
then reach advisory criteria on Monday. Experimental HeatRisk
guidance shows widespread High Risk (Level 3 of 4) on Saturday and
Sunday, with areas of Extreme Risk (Level 4 of 4) on Monday.
Needless to say, the chance of needing heat advisories is
increasing for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Afternoon
temperatures at the immediate coast will generally be in the upper
80s to near 90 with heat index values 98-102F. So don`t expect
THAT much heat relief at the coast. In addition, the rip current
risk will be relatively high at the beaches this weekend.
Practicing heat safety will be must over the holiday weekend. If
at the beach, swim near a life guard and away from piers and
jetties. If caught in a rip current, do not panic and swim
parallel to shore. Regarding heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear
light clothing, take frequent breaks (preferable inside) if
working/playing outside, and NEVER leave children and pets in
vehicles.

A weak front may approach from the north Monday night into Tuesday
and bring us a shot of showers/thunderstorms. For now, PoPs remain
low. But some of the global guidance suggests that may need to
increase those PoPs in future updates. Forecast afternoon temps
drop to the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday/Wednesday with lower
humidity.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Late evening satellite is showing low clouds beginning to develop across
the area. 06Z TAFs have MVFR ceilings developing over the next couple
of hours with mainly S to SE winds around 8 to 13 knots. Mainly S winds
will strengthen to close to 15 knots and become occasionally gusty during
the day on Friday with MVFR ceilings becoming VFR by around 16Z-18Z.
At this time, any late afternoon/evening storms should stay NW and N
of the area, but we will need to watch the development and adjust the
TAFs if needed.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds will continue to close
out the week an on into/through the weekend. Winds and/or seas are likely
to reach advisory criteria at times.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  94  75  94 /  20  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)  77  94  77  94 /  10  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  85  79  86 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$