Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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121 FXUS64 KHGX 310721 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The active weather will continue through Saturday with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms possible thanks to numerous shortwaves passing through the zonal flow aloft. The first round is already on our door step, expected to move into the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley area by 2 to 4am. The severe potential is not high with these storms as the area has been worked over pretty well from last evening`s thunderstorms. But, we could still see some wind gusts to around 30 to 40mph and small hail possible. The next MCS is located a bit further west, about halfway between Abilene and Waco as of 2am, and the trajectory of this line is currently bringing it down along the Brazos River through SE Texas closer to daybreak. Now this area hasn`t seen the same number of storms that the rest of the region experienced yesterday, so the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is higher with this MCS than the storms moving through the Pineywoods this morning. Guidance is also indicating that another MCS may move through the region this afternoon with additional showers and storms developing overnight tonight into Saturday. But, confidence on the where, when, and strength of these additional storms is unusually low at this time. This uncertainty is due to figuring out the the exact timing and location of the passing shortwaves, how much the atmosphere can recharge between rounds, and mesoscale features (boundary interactions) that is impossible to accurately predict this far out. All-in-all a very messy forecast. SPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for most of SE Texas today due to the MCS potential. Damaging winds will be the main concern, but hail and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. There is also a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Saturday, again with strong winds being the primary threat. There is also the potential for locally heavy rainfall this morning through this afternoon with the MCSs passing through. These storms will be fairly progressive, but could produce rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour or higher. Minor urban and small stream flooding would be the primary concern, but cannot out rule some areas experiencing flash flooding. WPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today, and then most areas north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on Saturday. Temperature forecast for this afternoon is also tricky due to the uncertainty of the storms timing/locations. Expecting afternoon high temperatures to be in the mid to upper 80s, but could see some spots reach the low 90s if enough sunshine can peak through. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be on the unseasonably warm side, especially along the coast, with overnight minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and low 80s along the immediate coast. High temperatures tomorrow should rise into the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the area as precipitation coverage should be less. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 We will continue to have additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through early next week as a few more upper level disturbances embedded in the quasi-zonal flow aloft move across Southeast Texas. We may also continue to see several storms from Central and North Texas pushing into our region from time to time. On Sunday, we could be seeing isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as a short wave passes through Texas and combines with sufficient low moisture, instability along with vort maxes pushing across the our area and possibly a low level jet. On Monday, although conditions look good for the development of storms, it seems we may stay capped enough to limit activity. A similar pattern could occur on Tuesday, although it does seem a little more favorable for rain in the afternoon and early evening hours. There is some model inconsistency on Wednesday, but global models are hinting at the passage of an upper level trough moving across the Southern Plains which could try to push a weak cold front close to Southeast Texas, and if it does move into our local area, it could stall over us. There is a chance the boundary meanders over us on Thursday and may help the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the upper level trough moves across the eastern Texas region. Unfortunately, the models have been performing very poorly with the current weather trend, especially with timing. Thus, the forecast may undergo a few modifications during the next few days given that it has been a bit tricky to pin point the time of the day or night and exact location of some of these storms. With respect to temperatures, we will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday and then gradually warn through mid week where we will have highs in the low to mid 90s. The lows will be generally in the mid to upper 70s, a little cooler in some spots along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the next 24 to 36 hours, but confidence is abnormally low on the exact timing and locations of the storms. The first line of storms is expected to move through the region between 7 and 12z from the Brazos Valley down to the coast. There is great uncertainty with how strong these storms will be and if the line will make it all the way to the coast (it may dissipate as it heads towards the I-10 corridor). There could be temporary IFR conditions as these storms move overhead with reduced visibility due to heavy rain, lower CIGs down to around 1000-2000ft, and gusty winds. There should be a lull in the TS activity during the early to mid morning hours, but another line of strong thunderstorms may move through the area during the late morning hours through the afternoon. Additional showers and storms will be possible late tomorrow night. Generally expecting southeasterly winds through the period, but will become northerly briefing following the line of storms before eventually swinging back around to the southeast. Patchy MVFR conditions are expected through sunrise with BKN 1500-2500ft. VFR conditions will generally prevail through the day with MVFR conditions returning tomorrow night. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 4 to 6 feet can be expected through the next few days and may become moderate to strong briefly at times. Caution flags may be needed from time to time. Periods of showers and storms are expected today into this weekend. Some storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing strong gusty winds and higher seas. There is a chance for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches during the next couple of days. Beachgoers should exercise caution in the waters and follow beach flags and lifeguard guidance. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 88 75 90 / 30 50 10 30 Houston (IAH) 76 88 76 90 / 40 60 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 80 86 80 89 / 40 40 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM....Cotto (24) AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Cotto (24)