726
FXUS64 KHGX 020748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
248 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

With surface high pressure nearby leading to light winds combining
with the saturated grounds from the previous rounds of rainfall,
we`ve begun to see some decreased visibilities with patchy fog
developing. Some upper level clouds being blown downstream from
decaying storms in west Texas may inhibit fog development a bit.
Later this morning, a shortwave pushes through Southeast TX from the
west and gets the convection south of I-10 generally around 10am or
so. The sea breeze is expected to generate some additional
showers/storms in the afternoon hours, so Sunday may be rather
reminiscent of Saturday. SPC will be keeping in the marginal risk of
severe weather (level 1 out of 5) for areas east of a Caldwell-Katy-
Pearland line, and the main threat will be damaging winds in a few
isolated storms that may become strong to severe. The other thing
we`ll be watching for is locally heavy rainfall. PW values will
still top out around 2.0" this afternoon, which is above the 90th
percentile (~1.86"). If one of these stronger storms moves slowly
over a particular location, we could see minor localized street
flooding. This is why WPC has most of Southeast Texas in a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall.

Temperatures should still be able to reach the upper 80s/low 90s
this afternoon, but those that do see rainfall (or are near any
showers/storms) will get intermittent periods of rain-cooled air.
This offers a brief reprieve from the heat, but if it happens early
enough in the day then you`ll get some increased humidity.
Temperatures only drop off into the upper 70s on Sunday night with
low 80s right along the coast. Monday will be very similar
temperature wise, but the rainfall forecast is a bit tricky. 00Z
CAMs show a MCS drifting through portions of Texas on Monday...and
that`s being stated ambiguously for a reason! The timing and
placement of it is very much up in the air at the moment, so
confidence is rather low. However, I can say that generally the
highest rain chances will be north of I-10 this time around.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main concern through the long term will be the return of the
heat. A long fetch of southerly flow at the surface driven by a
surface high pressure in the SE CONUS will help drive the
temperatures and dew points up. High temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon heat indices
rising to near 100 to 107 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s for most inland locations with areas along the
immediate coast not dropping below 80 degrees. Also because of the
higher dew points along the coast, overnight heat indices may not
drop below 90 degrees.

Rain chances through the upcoming week will be fairly low. The
chances are slightly higher Tuesday and Wednesday as we get some
weak disturbances sliding overhead combined with daytime heating,
but even then not looking like anything impressive as of right now.
Those low rain chances drop even lower as we head towards the end of
the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over Texas.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

This cycle trends more pessimistic as sub-BKN decks at IFR levels
are already beginning to crop up, and CIGs seem to be running 3-6
hours ahead of previous cycle`s expectations. Now anticipate IFR-
low MVFR conditions late tonight, but should still improve to VFR
towards mid-day as clouds lift and scatter. Also continue to
expect another daily round of showers and storms, with the initial
focus on the seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024


Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the late morning through afternoon hours today. Gusty winds
and heavy downpours will be possible near the stronger storms.
Moderate onshore flow will continue through the next several days
with winds around 15kt with occasionally higher gusts and seas
building to 4 to 6ft. Small craft will need to exercise caution at
times, and conditions will be borderline Small Craft Advisory Monday
and Tuesday. The onshore flow will persist into the second half of
the week, but is expected to decrease to around 5-10kt. Rain chances
will also gradually diminish through the week. The persistent
onshore flow may also lead to a high risk of strong rip currents.

Fowler

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along
the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River
at Normangee is forecast to crest in major flood stage on Sunday
afternoon. The Trinity River at Riverside and at Moss Bluff are
expected to be in minor flood stage until further notice. Lastly,
the Trinity River at Liberty is forecast to crest in minor flood
stage some time on Sunday.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat
persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  77  92  77 /  30  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  90  77  91  79 /  30  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  87  81 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler