Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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582 FXUS64 KHGX 261746 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1246 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 It`s been a pretty "rinse and repeat" forecast for the last few days, and today`s forecast will continue the pattern of heat and humidity as SE Texas remains under a broad area of high pressure that is centered over Mexico. Daytime temperatures will continue to top out in the low to mid 90s inland and in the 80s for the islands. Dew point values in the mid to upper 70s will make today feel like you are being wrapped in a hot and wet blanket... Jokes aside, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values reaching Advisory criteria (108 degrees and higher) for much of SE Texas (with the exception of coastal counties and the islands). Nighttime temperatures will not provide much relief from the heat as temperatures lower into the 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values at the time of this writing are in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the area. For this reason a Heat Advisory will be in effect for this afternoon through Monday night. Please remember to exercise caution with rising temperatures. Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles (even if you plan to crack a window, it is too hot!). For pet owners, remember, it is too hot for the palm of your hand, the ground is too hot for your pets` paws. In addition to the heat, there is the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of SE Texas Monday (looking like best chances may be in the nighttime hours). SPC has placed an area generally along and north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A dry line will move into Central Texas during the day Monday, at the 500mb level a few disturbances embedded in the quasi-zonal flow will move through and provide pockets of PVA. These storms would likely move in from Mexico and push through Central Texas during the evening hours. Whether or not the storms make it to SE Texas would largely depend on the erosion of a pretty hefty capping inversion. If storms are able to break through the cap, they will be met with CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, LI values of around -10 to -14 (meaning a pretty volatile airmass is in place), steep mid-level lapse rates, and decent amount of shear. In layman`s terms, if storms overcome the cap, they would enter an environment favorable for organized storms capable of producing damaging winds (58 mph or greater) and large hail (1" or greater). The greatest chance for thunderstorms would be in the western and northern counties. Once storms die down later on Monday night, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Finally, for those of you going to the beach, there is a high risk of rip currents through the holiday weekend. Please swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming near rocks, piers and jetties as this is where rip currents are more likely to form. If you find yourself caught in a rip current, remember to wave, yell, and swim parallel to the shore. In addition, don`t swim at the eastern or western tips of Galveston Island. Tidal currents and rip currents are always dangerous there. Galveston Beach Patrol made over a dozen rescues yesterday and unfortunately we had one rip current related drowning. The Beach Patrol is recommending adult experienced swimmers only go no more than waist deep water - and those non-swimmers with kids to stay on the beach. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Unseasonably hot conditions will begin waning Tuesday as upper ridging to our south begins losing a touch of its grip, heights and H85/7 temps lower, and llvl winds trend more to the SE. A weak backdoor front should be somewhat close to the region Tue (maybe NE Tx and Ncntl La. Would anticipate some scattered tstm development on its western periphery during the late afternoon/evening hours. Better chances generally north of I-10 where the cap is more likely to be overcome with any forcing. Eyes then turn to the NW Tuesday night as a potential disturbance in the NW flow aloft amplifies overnight into Wed with a possible MCS developing. During the mid-late week time period, we should see another surge of high pressure building SSE down the Midwest into the Mississippi Valley. This well give the backdoor front a slightly further westward push and some more recycled "drier" air into the area. And by "drier" I mean temps/dewpoints trending back to near normal. With low level southeast flow in place we should still have plenty of moisture available to fuel some shra/tstms. Some ridging aloft won`t exactly make things ideal, but isolated-scattered diurnally driven precip looks to be a decent bet...especially the further inland from the coast one gets. Guidance still projecting a fairly active NW flow aloft with embedded disturbances possibly enhancing or generating another MCS or two upstream that`ll need to be monitored. Confidence as to when/where remains low, but overall pattern is somewhat favorable in regards to the possibility. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected this afternoon and evening. Iso SH/TS just to our north may move a little more south closer to CLL/UTS during the next few hours and may be close enough to warrant a TEMPO for those two sites. S-SE winds at 08-14 kts with gusts of 18-24 kts expected through this evening, then relaxing to 03-06 kts tonight into Mon. Cloud decks mainly between 015-Although t025 are expected tonight, gradually lifting and scattering out after sunrise. Little to no rain expected Mon morning as the cap remains in place over SE TX. However, the cap is expected to weaken in the afternoon/evening. As it does so, upper level disturbances are expected to move aloft and could allow for locally driven storms over our region. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Moderate south winds and 4 to 6 foot seas are expected through tonight. Conditions are hovering around SCA criteria so will keep those flags flying into at least mid morning and give the day crew another look at things. Speeds should slightly diminish this afternoon, but small craft are still urged to use caution this holiday weekend. Winds and seas decrease somewhat on Monday and Tuesday. During the second half of the week, a longer fetch of moderate southeast winds set up across the Gulf. Look for winds/seas to bump back up into SCEC territory. Beach Hazards Statement has been extended through the remainder of Memorial Day holiday for above normal surf and a high risk of rip currents. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 76 96 74 / 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 94 78 98 76 / 10 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227-235. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....47 AVIATION...24 MARINE...47