109
FXUS64 KHGX 040448
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Much like yesterday, development has started this afternoon across
our N/NE counties; courtesy of daytime heating, strengthening LLJ,
increased PWs and perhaps a passing disturbance aloft. The rest of
the CWA will likely remain under the influence of the cap with very
little if any activity developing the rest of this afternoon. But,
as we head into tonight, rain chances should continue/persist over
these same northern CWA with approach of the MCS (or its remnants)
from NorthTX.

Locations near the Piney Woods (ie. Houston/Trinity/Polk counties)
still have the best chances for strong/severe storms with this sy-
stem as SPC keeps a Slight Risk in place (level 2 of 5) tonight. A
Marginal Risk will remain for areas from the Brazos Valley east to
Lake Livingston (level 1 of 5). Additionally...WPC is also keeping
much of this same "layout" in place for its Excessive Rain outlook
(with a Slight Risk across our NE counties and a Marginal Risk for
the next 2 tiers of counties (levels 2/1 of 4)). So damaging wind,
hail and heavy rainfall are going to be main hazards tonight.

Otherwise, for much of the rest of SE TX, mostly cloudy skies will
prevail with warm/quiet/humid weather in place for the rest of the
overnight period. Lows should be in the mid to upper 70s...then to
around 80 along the immediate coast.

Tues is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs mostly in
the lower 90s (upper 80s at the beaches). Rain chances should stay
limited during much of the day, but we could see some isolated de-
velopment by the late afternoon (via daytime heating, returning LL
jet, elevated PWs to around 2" and maybe some lingering boundaries
from the overnight activity). And per models, we could see another
round of showers/storms tomorrow night with yet another MCS moving
down from the Southern Plains, which could be the last one for the
near future (as the ridge aloft begins building in from the west).
However...this activity could impact more of SE TX as the steering
flow at the mid/upper levels become more NW/SE (in contrast to the
zonal flow of late).

Lows tomorrow night should be in the mid to upper 70s for most lo-
cations once again...around 80 along the immediate coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mid/upper ridge expands northward from Mexico into the Rockies
and West Texas during the second part of the work week. Despite
warm-hot surface readings, llvl capping should mostly keep a lid
on convection...though not exactly zero. Places to watch for some
isolated shra/tstms might be across ne/e parts of the CWA and also
maybe a very small possibility of an isolated late aftn/evening
tstm along the coastal seabreeze.

A weak backdoor front is forecast to sag into portions of East Tx
and maybe the NE 1/3 our CWA Friday. This boundary too might
provide somewhat of a focus to look for some scattered late
afternoon/evening convection Friday & Saturday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Cigs should lower to MVFR overnight with continued light south to
southeast winds. Winds will be higher near the coast. MVFR cigs
should lift to VFR by mid-morning while winds increase from the
south. Winds will eventually become more southeasterly later in
the afternoon. MVFR cigs may return by Tuesday evening.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Moderate onshore flow and somewhat elevated seas will continue
through midweek. Will continue flying the caution flags and advertising
the high risk of rip currents along area beaches. Winds and seas
should begin diminishing as we head into the second part of the
work week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  77  93  77 /  20  20  10  20
Houston (IAH)  91  78  92  78 /  30  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  86  81 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams