Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
058 FXUS66 KHNX 202023 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 123 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Elevated winds are expected again in the Mojave Desert Slopes later today. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from 2 PM PDT this afternoon until 5 AM PDT tomorrow morning. 2. Temperatures will lower to near normal today then climb to around 3 to 6 degrees above normal by Wednesday followed by a cool down to slightly below normal this weekend. 3. There is a 20 percent chance for isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks this afternoon and early evening. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough passed through central California this morning, bringing a change in the atmospheric pattern over the region in the coming days. Our CWA will be under the upstream sector of the trough, which will result in a slight cooling trend today as the flow aloft shifts towards the northwest. Afternoon highs are expected to struggle to warm past the mid 80s, however these temperatures are near normal for this time of year. The following are probabilities for select locations of the San Joaquin Valley to reach or exceed 84 degrees today. Bakersfield 56% Delano 56% Fresno 56% Hanford56% Lemoore 56% Visalia 56% Porterville 41% Merced 36% Madera 31% Reedley 21% Upslope flow along the Sierra Nevada will bring a chance for isolated showers to the crests of the mountain range this afternoon and evening with a few stronger thunderstorms possible. The primary hazards with these storms will include dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, small hail, and wind gusts near 45 miles per hour. In addition to mountain showers, downslope flow on the eastern side of the Tehachapi mountains is projected to bring stronger wind gusts to the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon into tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from 2 PM PDT this afternoon through 5 AM PDT tomorrow morning due to expected westerly wind 25 to 35 miles per hour with wind gusts up to 55 miles per hour. A slight warming trend will propagate over central California Tuesday and Wednesday as the center axis of the aforementioned trough progresses eastward; upper level winds over the region are expected to weaken through Wednesday as a result. The stagnant air aloft will return temperatures above their season normals. NBM ensemble guidance suggests a moderate probability (30 to 60 percent) for maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures will once again cool near normal on Thursday and into the weekend as the overall atmospheric flow shifts to the west to northwest, influenced by a second upper level system progressing through the Pacific northwest. && .AVIATION... MVFR conditions possible in localized areas along the Sierra Nevada crests between 21Z and 03Z this afternoon and evening. Stronger wind gusts are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes between 21Z this afternoon and 12Z tomorrow morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/19/2024 12:40 EXPIRES: 05/20/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation...SM DSS..............DAS weather.gov/hanford