Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
644 FXUS66 KHNX 210822 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 122 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue this weekend into early next week with a 20 to 50 percent probability of temperatures reaching the triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail during this time. 2. With the warming trend over the weekend and early nest week, humidity values will drop which will lead to elevated grass fire concerns, especially in eastern Kern County. 3. A cooling trend will take place between next Wednesday and Friday, but temperatures will remain above normal and dry conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to our area over the previous two days is now centered in southeastern San Bernadino County and moving slowly eastward and away from our area. Meanwhile, skies have cleared our across our area behind the departed low as a dry high pressure ridge centered near 135W builds inland into CA. The ridge is progged to bring about a warming trend across our area today through Tuesday. NBM guidance indicating the PoE for 90 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley for today is between 70 and 90 percent and 95 percent or higher on Sunday. By Tuesday, as the ridge shifts inland into the Great Basin, the PoE for 100 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley is 20 to 50 percent. Ensemble means are showing the ridge will flatten Wednesday through Friday as a trough pushes into the PAC NW on Wednesday followed by a zonal flow pattern over the western CONUS on Thursday and Friday. This will result in a slight cooling trend taking place across our area during this period although temperatures are expected to remain above normal and RH progs are showing no significant moisture impacting our area over the next seven days. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public/aviation...DAS idss...JPK weather.gov/hanford